Article 2: AP News
The Associated Press reports that Ali Larijani, one of Iran’s most powerful political and security figures, was killed in an Israeli airstrike during the ongoing war involving Iran, the United States, and Israel. Larijani, 67, had taken on a central leadership role after the earlier deaths of Iran’s supreme leader and other senior officials, effectively helping run the country despite not being eligible to formally become supreme leader due to his non-clerical status.
The driving factor behind the 2026 U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran is nuclear weapons. Prior to the conflict, Larijani had been appointed to advise Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on strategy in nuclear talks with the Trump administration. He has increasingly issued hardline threats and warned President Trump to “Be careful not to get eliminated yourself,” replying to one of Trump’s threats on X. While Larijani was operational in his high-level leadership position advising Iranian action, he was also highly symbolic. So much so, the AP news article compares him to the Kennedys. Since he’s also a symbolic leader, the Iranian population could largely perceive his death as a Martyr. If so, this could weaken the chances of regime change. The possibility of Martyrdom increases, as he has written at least six philosophy books, solidifying his status as a highly influential figure.
Regardless of how the Iranian population perceives his death, the chances of the Iranian conflict escalating have increased. The Iranian government, if they don’t respond with force, may lose legitimacy as it would show weakness in a time when the West is pushing for regime change.
Iran will likely respond with increased drone strikes on U.S allies, ships going through the Strait of Hormuz, and attacking the world’s oil supply chain. Iran cannot defeat the U.S militarily; however, if the cost of conflict becomes too high, the U.S and Israeli forces may have to back down. The effects of Iranian attacks are already taking their toll. Crude oil has fluctuated over $100 a gallon, significantly increasing the risk of recession for the U.S, and putting pressure on the U.S and Israel from their allies, who are feeling the economic impacts. The Iranian system is built to survive individuals, so Larijani is structurally replaceable and likely to be replaced in the short term. The U.S and Israel will likely increase their military posturing, such as the allocation of resources to safer areas, in anticipation of Iranian attacks. Further covert action, such as cyber operations, targeted strikes on proxy groups, and more, is possible. Regardless, the U.S response will reveal whether great powers can still control escalation in modern conflicts or whether targeted killings like this inevitably spiral beyond their control.
In class, we learned about Sovereignty and International law. The targeted killing in another state heavily violates sovereignty, especially against a head of government. The UN may respond, but it will likely be weak. The weak response comes from their lack of enforcement power, especially against strong world powers. Therefore, while international law exists, its enforcement is selective and power-driven.