{"id":3070,"date":"2019-02-15T14:02:45","date_gmt":"2019-02-15T14:02:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/eastasiaandoceaniablog\/?p=3070"},"modified":"2019-02-15T14:03:12","modified_gmt":"2019-02-15T14:03:12","slug":"3070","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/eastasiaandoceaniablog\/2019\/02\/15\/3070\/","title":{"rendered":"Reversing Cambodia\u2019s democratic drift"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Cambodia is drifting towards autocracy<\/a> with a clear trend. An unprecedented crackdown<\/a> on independent media, civil society and the country\u2019s major opposition party, the Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP), hardly suggest otherwise. Whether Hun Sen\u2019s government likes it or not, similar observations about Cambodia will continue to emerge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Cambodia's<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Although 19 smaller parties participated in the July 2018 national elections<\/a>, commentators and observers questioned the credibility of the election. Some called it a sham<\/a>. Prime Minister Hun Sen\u2019s ruling Cambodian People\u2019s Party (CPP) was unchallenged in the election, allowing the CPP to secure a predictable landslide victory. The party won all 125 parliamentary seats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hun Sen\u2019s recent political moves have not gone unnoticed. The United States has placed sanctions on high-ranking Cambodian government officials. The European Union has begun a formal procedure to withdraw its Everything But Arms (EBA) trade preferences. And the Australian and Japanese governments have raised concerns over the dissolution of the main opposition party.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, as international pressure mounts, Cambodia\u2019s political tensions seem to be easing. In December 2018 the Cambodian National Assembly amended<\/a> the Law on Political Parties, paving the way for the 118 banned CNRP politicians to return to politics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It remains to be seen whether all CNRP officials will request<\/a> political rehabilitation. So far, only two have. If this trend continues, a division within the opposition between supporters of acting CNRP President Sam Rainsy and former CNRP president Kem Sokha, who was arrested in 2017 prior to the party\u2019s dissolution, may become more severe and lead to a split.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sam Rainsy, who lives in self-imposed exile, recently announced that he would return<\/a> to Cambodia this year to fight for change and democracy. He even challenged Hun Sen to a bet over the likelihood of Kem Sokha\u2019s release amid mounting international pressure. He faces imprisonment if he loses, but if he wins Hun Sen has agreed to step down from power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The high-stakes wager<\/a> reflects the country\u2019s political dysfunction and could result in a lose-lose situation for both prominent Cambodian political figures. Hun Sen may come under more criticism and Sam Rainsy could further damage his already compromised integrity if they fail to stick to the terms of their political wager. As it stands, it seems likely that Sam Rainsy will try to take advantage of the situation to return to Cambodia, resume his political career and put more pressure on Hun Sen\u2019s government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The direction of Cambodia\u2019s political development remains unclear amid talk of Sam Rainsy\u2019s return and the possibility of senior CNRP officials returning to politics. Despite this uncertainty, Prime Minister Hun Sen and his ruling elites hold the key to relieving the political deadlock and putting the deteriorating democracy back on track.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the strongman of Cambodia, Hun Sen has been in power<\/a> for more than 30 years. His success in ending the country\u2019s four-decade-long civil war is one of his greatest achievements, though criticism of his accomplishments is not uncommon. Cambodia\u2019s remarkable economic growth at about 7 per cent over the last 20 years has also earned him legitimacy. But this legitimacy is now under threat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

National elections in 2013 and local elections in 2017 made it clear<\/a> that Hun Sen and his party are no longer well received by the majority of Cambodians. Unless he commits to improving human rights and democracy and addressing pressing social issues in the country, his domestic legitimacy will further deteriorate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At present, Hun Sen\u2019s government appears to face less pressure from within than without. But increasing external pressure could negatively affect Cambodia\u2019s economic growth trajectory and exacerbate internal grievances. If Hun Sen cannot maintain the momentum of development and economic growth<\/a> \u2014 key to the legitimacy<\/a> of his government \u2014 his political dominance will probably be undermined, if not challenged.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reversing Cambodia\u2019s descent into a one-party state<\/a> is crucial for both the incumbent government and Cambodia at large. The process has to begin with political willingness, effective mechanisms, and firm internal and external pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

External pressure may have some, but likely insignificant<\/a>, effects on the Cambodian government. China\u2019s support and a fear of losing power has given the ruling elites an obvious choice. They will aim to stay in power and do whatever possible to avoid regime change, or \u2018maintain peace and stability\u2019 \u2014 a phrase frequently used by CPP elites. Hun Sen and his team will look to China<\/a> under mounting pressure from the West.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One viable approach to halting the degeneration of Cambodia\u2019s ersatz democracy<\/a> is to engage in channels of dialogue at both national and international<\/a> levels. At the national level, it is imperative to resume the culture of dialogue<\/a> between the ruling CPP and the dissolved CNRP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dialogue at the international level requires participation and coordination from key external players that have significant leverage over Cambodia\u2019s political and economic landscape, such as the United States, the European Union and China. Other players like Australia, Japan and ASEAN are also important.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Through these channels of discussion and negotiation the course of Cambodia\u2019s democracy, perceived by many as a drift towards autocratic rule, can be reversed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kimkong Heng is a doctoral candidate at the University of Queensland and an Australia Awards Scholar.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Veasna Var is a doctoral candidate at the University of New South Wales, Canberra and a Senior Fellow at the Cambodian Institute for Cooperation and Peace.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n