- SHARE<\/a><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n
When it comes to Japan\u2019s economy, there\u2019s actually two of them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In Japan A, an urban-industrial corridor stretching about 300 miles from Tokyo through Osaka, you\u2019ll find cutting-edge businesses and world-class wealth. In Japan B, which is just about everywhere else, small cities and towns are dying as people move to Japan A in search of opportunity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
While other major developed economies are headed down a similar path, Japan has a head start on them when it comes to aging and depopulation, making it a cautionary tale for policy makers across the globe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The tiny Misekko Asaminai store in Akita prefecture is deep in Japan B. It\u2019s part grocery, part gathering place for the area\u2019s far-flung and often isolated residents, who come to buy necessities and enjoy each other\u2019s company. On Thursdays, they sing together.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The store opened three years ago with government funds to address a growing problem in rapidly aging and depopulating rural Japan: the struggle to access such basics of modern life as health care and groceries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It was meant to help people like 66-year old Etsuko Kudo, who works there. Like many of her generation, she dreads what she\u2019ll do when she can no longer drive to the shops and the doctor, or to see friends. \u201cRight now it\u2019s fine,\u201d Kudo says. \u201cBut I\u2019m worried about the future.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Japan\u2019s rural population is expected to plunge another 17% in just 12 years, from 2018 through 2030, according to United Nations data. Further out, the decline will steepen, with the population falling by 2% per year in the 2030s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the U.S., the rural population will fall 7.4% between 2018 and 2030, according to UN projections, with much steeper drops in the Great Plains and corn belt. The population in rural Germany will drop 7.3% over the same time period, while Italy\u2019s will fall 15%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By the 2040s, rural depopulation in Japan will outpace that in every country except Bulgaria and Albania. Some predict hundreds of small cities and towns will be completely deserted over time. Many more will become unlivable by today\u2019s standards<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In fact, many of those left behind in rural areas are already struggling. More than 80% of towns that replied to an agriculture ministry survey last year said they need to take steps to help residents who find it difficult to obtain groceries, with almost all citing aging as a reason.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
From 2002-2017, more than 7,000 public schools across Japan shut their doors, the majority in rural areas, as the country\u2019s birthrate remained mired well below replacement level. As more schools close and other services disappear or become harder to access, young families will have even more reason to flock to the cities.ADVERTISE<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As a result of younger generations moving from Japan B to Japan A, household assets are also likely to flow in the same direction via inheritance. In the 20 to 25 years from 2014, two thirds of Japan\u2019s prefectures are expected to see over 20% of household assets leave their borders because of this reason, according to Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So far, the lesson for other nations seems to be that the flow of people and wealth into urban areas is almost impossible to halt. Some Japanese economists even say the government should stop trying and instead focus on adapting to an inevitable megatrend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Japanese government hasn\u2019t given up just yet. It\u2019s offering one-off cash payments of up to 3 million yen to anyone willing to move out of greater Tokyo to work for a small or medium-sized company or to start a business, as well as a range of subsidies for local universities and businesses. Its efforts have claimed some success, such as creating more jobs for young people. But it hasn\u2019t changed the fundamental story.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
To be sure, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe\u2019s policies have largely focused on and benefited Japan A, in which about half of the country\u2019s 126 million people live on just 14% of the landmass. Politically, that\u2019s worked. Abe is set to become the nation\u2019s longest-serving prime minister in November<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It won\u2019t be possible, practically speaking, to keep all of Japan connected to gas and sewer lines, or to maintain ambulance services within 20 minutes of every town, so bringing people into more concentrated spaces would be safer for everyone, he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But some are against this argument. Former Tokyoite Ryu Yanagisawa is one of them, heading a startup that helps people and firms move to the countryside. \u201cThe 20th century was an age of competition,\u201d said the 32-year-old. \u201cBut shouldn\u2019t the 21st century be more about happiness.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
His firm, Dochavengers, is based in what used to be a primary school in Akita, 40 minutes by car from Kudo\u2019s store. In the Babame area where he lives there is community, nature, and a richer way of life, Yanagisawa says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
![\"Once](\"https:\/\/assets.bwbx.io\/images\/users\/iqjWHBFdfxIU\/iTe73Vm3VL14\/v0\/-1x-1.jpg\")
Once a week, local residents gather to eat lunch and sing together at the Misekko Asaminai grocery. Photographer: Noriko Hayashi\/Bloomberg<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n But as the divide between the two Japans grows starker, the flow of younger people to opportunity in Japan A appears unstoppable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Consider Sho Ohtani, 33, who moved to Tokyo from his native Gifu in western Japan when he was 21. After studying aerospace engineering at the elite University of Tokyo, he now works in artificial intelligence. He has no intention of moving back to his native prefecture.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThere\u2019s nothing I can immediately say that\u2019s good about Gifu,\u201d he said<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The world\u2019s most ambitious monetary stimulus campaign hasn\u2019t spurred a revival in Japan B. In fact, side effects from the Bank of Japan\u2019s radical program have only compounded the strains. Regional banks, already struggling with untenable business models, are taking on more risk just to stay afloat as near-zero and negative interest rates make turning a profit even more challenging.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cMonetary policy\u2019s side effects absolutely show up more in the regions,\u201d said Mari Iwashita, chief market economist at Daiwa Securities Co. in Tokyo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Japan will fare better in the 21st century if it reinvents itself as more of a city-state than a continental nation, said Kotaro Kuwazu, executive fellow at the Nomura Research Institute, one of Japan\u2019s most prominent think tanks. Cities will drive the future, so to compete globally Japan should give more resources and power to Tokyo \u2013 or what will become the Tokyo megalopolis, he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cI believe Japan should be reconceived through the lens of the city,\u201d Kuwazu said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Japan\u2019s Population Problem Is Straining Its Economy. The World Is Watching for a Solution By Yuko Takeo and Hannah DormidoSeptember 19, 2019, 12:00 PM SHARE When it comes to Japan\u2019s economy, there\u2019s actually two of them. In Japan A, an urban-industrial corridor stretching about 300 miles from Tokyo through Osaka, you\u2019ll find cutting-edge businesses and world-class wealth. In Japan B, which is just… Read more »<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":139,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3638","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/eastasiaandoceaniablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3638","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/eastasiaandoceaniablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/eastasiaandoceaniablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/eastasiaandoceaniablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/139"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/eastasiaandoceaniablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3638"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/eastasiaandoceaniablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3638\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3641,"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/eastasiaandoceaniablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3638\/revisions\/3641"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/eastasiaandoceaniablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3638"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/eastasiaandoceaniablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3638"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/eastasiaandoceaniablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3638"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}