The Middle East, only on our radar because of major investment: oil. Oil is the driving factor in the United States and most developed country’s interest in this volatile region. But as the finite resource depletes and the modern world heeds the need for renewable energy, what will happen to the Middle East?
Petrostates, mainly Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar and the UAE hold a combined $2 trillion wealth, primarily based on oil. Most gulf states realize the dependence on oil wealth is targeted, but the creation and implementation of economy changing plans can take longer than they have.
Saudi Arabia’s oil and gas sector accounts for about 50 percent of its gross domestic product. In comparison, oil and gas accounts for only 8% of the United States’ GDP. Saudi Arabia has taken steps with their “Vision 2030” plan, an attempt to diversify away from oil. Their plan may not be as strong without foreign investment, but major powers such as China and India have little interest in investing in clean energy.
A drop in the economy of Saudi Arabia could be a direct threat to the monarchy. The current Saudi state has been reigning since 1902, but due to the revolution of rising expectations and a decline in the well-being of their citizens, their rule has the potential to be overthrown. Although the House will want to maintain their lavish lifestyle, to stay in power they must cater towards and care for their population.
In upcoming decades Saudi Arabia’s importance on the international stage may also decline. Their partnership with the US is mainly developed on the hatred of Iran and the love of oil. Simply put, if Saudi Arabia loses economic importance the United States will lose most interest. If the dilemma is analyzed in more depth, the United States could actually have more interest and want to invest in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States to heighten their strength in the Middle East. The decline of wealthy gulf states could mean the rise of Iran as a true regional hegemon, and the US would do anything to stop that from happening.
The depletion of oil and potential downfall of economic powerhouses in the Gulf places the standing of many states at risk. Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iran are all in which the US will watch the most.