As President Trump proposed in his election campaign back in 2016 which was to pull troops out of the middle east, that idea might be coming true in the next couple weeks. The United States has begun making preparations to begin withdrawing diplomats from Iraq and shutting down the embassy in Baghdad. The United States proposed to bring down the number of troops in Iraq from 5,000 to 3,000. Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, threatened in a a phone call to President Barham Salih, to shut down the embassy. Iraq fears that if the US were to pull troops out, military actions will be quick to follow by terrorist group ISIS which is very prevalent in that area. Iraqi leader, Muqtada al-Sadr, who is in charge of millions of Iraqis, pleads for groups to avoid conflicts with one another in order to prevent Iraq from becoming a battleground. A proxy war is possible since earlier this year, United States forces killed top Iranian leader, Qassem Soleimani, with a drone strike at Baghdad airport. Iran responded with missiles of their own aimed at US bases in Iraq. Several Iraqi leaders think that Pompeo used this threat of pulling troops out as a scare tactic, but they think it will prompt militia groups to attack. An important Shia leader thought Trump wanted to pull troops out ahead of the election to prevent an attack that could be embarrassing to him.
Throughout these last couple of months we have begun seeing tensions rise in the middle east over several incidents such as disruption of the nuclear program in Iran by Israel, the killing of Soleimani by US forces, and different missile attacks on US diplomats in Iraq. By pulling troops out of Iraq, it will only create more chaos within that area. It will allow for different militia groups to reenter the area such as ISIS. It is important for us to realize that pulling troops out drastically will cause problems later on that might not be as easy to solve if we were there.
Where would those troops go if they’re not in Iraq? Iraq is one of the most dangerous places in the world right now for the reasons of different ethnic, religious, governmental, and different prevalent in the country. Without the threat of the United States military in that region, we would open up the gate to many others which would cause a power vacuum. ISIS could regain power and Iran will still want revenge for killing their precious military leader. From a levels of analysis prospective, pulling US troops out could be costly to the world. On an individual level, Muqtada al-sadr could engage in hostile conditions if his country is attacked. On a domestic level, Shia and Sunni muslims can have conflicts with one another causing mini wars among one another. On an interstate level, conflicts can erupt between Iraq and Iran since Iraq’s close allies with the United States who was responsible for killing Soleimani. On a global level, we could possible see ISIS rise to the stage again and could cause terrorist attacks throughout the world. While pulling troops out may be beneficial to some by causing government spending to go down, it will cause distress in the long run.