https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/10/egypt-seeks-brazils-support-nile-dam-dispute
The states of Egypt and Ethiopia are locked in disagreement and reproach due to the ensuing conflict from the planning of the GERD ¨Grand Ethiopian Resistance Dam.¨ This dam that the Ethiopian government plans on constructing will limit and cut off thousands of gallons of water per week to the Nile River Valley, drastically impeding on agricultural and energy sectors in Egypt. Due to Egyptian threats of military intervention the issue was raised to the UN which weakly dictated that Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia must come to a resolution quickly. President Sisi smartly, is now using a very wise strategic card: he is making serious inroads and garnering the support of the a new non permanent member of the security council and mild world power, Brazil. Egypt has had many meeting and is opening business deals, offering trade agreements and military exchange with Brasilia in order to have a countable faction supporting them. My analysis of this is that Egypt is playing the long game in a very crucial way. The current dictation from the UN means little to nothing, however the UN will also most likely not allow a war between these two countries particularly with the effects of a potential migrant crisis on top of the current one from Afghanistan it may cause. Therefore, in the second round of UN reproach to have a power such as Brazil entirely on your side, while no other country on the security council has any really strong affinity toward Ethiopia could sway whatever the UN decides entirely in the favor of Cairo. The IR concept that I will relate this to that has not yet been mentioned in class is the ¨Democratic Peace Theory,¨ which is that two democratic nations normally will not go to war with each other, and I think that might be what is on display here. Both Egypt and Ethiopia, while authoritarian especially in Egypt in nature, are both technically representative governments that conduct elections. I believe that the Egyptian threats of military intervention are not anything more than that and I think that is quite evident with the fact that they have already quitted on such reproach and are already looking towards the UN and diplomatic help instead. While both countries are heavily invested in this conflict, I think the general support for war from populations is low, and governments that are not permanent and rely on support from the people both do not have the desire to be the actors in their own countries who started a war. I believe this may be a great example of the Democratic Peace Theory.