Link to Article: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/26/eu-envoy-in-tehran-to-help-finalise-stalled-nuclear-deal-talks
In this article UN coordinator headed to Iran in hopes of re-joining the 2015 nuclear agreement which the Trump administration pulled out of in 2018. Over the weekend, UN representative Enrique Mora arrived in Iran and is expected to head to Washington following the visit. Former actions to revive the deal known as JCPOA have been agreed upon however the agreement has yet to be finalized between the U.S. and Iran. As of right now it is reported that Washington is “still seeking a diplomatic outcome here that puts Iran’s nuclear programme back in a box.” However i an agreement happens to be reached the U.S. will lift harsh sanctions imposed on Iran while re-commiting Iran to nuclear deal.
With the JCPOA deal placing significant restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief, many republican (including former President Trump) believed this deal failed to curtail Iran’s missile program and regional influence. I think the so called “sunset provisions” the fact that many of the restrictions placed on Iran expired from 10 to 15 years anyways, I understand the argument that the JCPOA deal was not effective in the long run as the deal mostly delayed advanced weapons from being made rather than ruled out. I also question if the benefit outweighs the cost for the US, since the deal was originally set in stone as fear that Israel would take preemptive military action as it did to suspected nuclear facilities in Iraq and Syria, against Iran, possibly triggering transportation disruptions from the Persian Gulf. Now do these concerns outweigh the cost of lack of control of Iran’s ballistic missile program? Or is the possibility that Iran producing nuclear weapons would trigger other states n acquiring to big of a threat?
This conflict deals with cost- benefit analysis and off shore balancing (both themes discussed in class). To start the JCPOA deal involves actors who heavily rely on using the cost- benefit analysis to determine the importance in negotiating the deal, if Washington will re-join the deal, or if the deal will cease to exist if benefits outweigh the costs. As far as off- shore balancing goes, some actors involved in the deal may feel as though we stay out of the situation as much as possible, only one problem- oil is involved meaning money.