Link to article: US and Iran close to nuclear deal, Trump says
This article highlights a milestone in the negotiations between the US and Iran for a new nuclear settlement, preferably one where Iran doesn’t have uranium enrichment capabilities at all. Tehran has agreed to far-reaching conditions with the US to relieve themselves of US-imposed sanctions. While no deal has been officially settled upon yet, we can see a sort of evolutionary compromise in the current state of these negotiations before and even in the very initial stages when they commenced last month in April. The idea was to make sure Iran has little to no uranium enrichment, not even for civil use. Now, we see that change as Iran’s desire for 3.7% for civil uses is being met, just as long as they don’t enrich uranium for weapon-producing capabilities. To even see such a compromise between two countries who have had very tense relations ever since the US withdrew from the previous Iranian nuclear deal in 2018. The initial warnings of the US having to strike Iran if conditions they did not cooperate are becoming slimmer chances as the talks proceed, with another round is scheduled for “the near future,” as the article cites. If a nuclear deal officially comes out of this, I can see a sanction-free Iran in a much better situation in regards to civil unrest and dissent at the regime. This unrest is mainly two-fold: It stems back from the systemic oppression of the Shia theocracy on the people in a human rights lens, but also due to a dwindling economy and a Rial that lost up to 90% of its value currently. The latter is a more current issue, but adds weight nonetheless to the former. Being able to fix up the economy and lessen the stain on the public is the first step to easing dissent, in which this goal is dire under a ticking clock with an impending Supreme Leader transition. Iran’s public has already manifested their rage into the very long and raging 2022 protests which were the worst anti-regime uprisings in the Republic’s history, but as stats show that about 80% are anti-regime, Tehran only has so much time to calm things down domestically before possible uprisings fueled by a leadership-transition take place. Overall, Iran is not in very good place both internationally and domestically: With a weak economy, immense civil unrest, lost leverage/power in Syria and the greater levant from Assad’s ousting, and an impending new Ayatollah, there’s a lot riding on this deal and the potential sanction relief.