{"id":1692,"date":"2018-05-08T21:45:20","date_gmt":"2018-05-08T21:45:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/middleeastandnorthafricablog\/?p=1692"},"modified":"2018-05-08T21:45:27","modified_gmt":"2018-05-08T21:45:27","slug":"hezbollahs-arms-political-dynasties-why-lebanons-polls-do-not-spell-change","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/middleeastandnorthafricablog\/2018\/05\/08\/hezbollahs-arms-political-dynasties-why-lebanons-polls-do-not-spell-change\/","title":{"rendered":"Hezbollah\u2019s arms, political dynasties: Why Lebanon\u2019s polls do not spell change"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>France 24<\/p>\n<h2>After nearly a decade and three postponements, Lebanese voters on Sunday are finally electing a new parliament. But a new electoral law has not changed old entitlements and divides, and a real change is not on the cards.<\/h2>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p>At a campaign rally just days before polls were set to open in Lebanon\u2019s much-anticipated parliamentary elections, Nadim Gemayel was working up a home crowd in Beirut\u2019s Christian-dominated Ashrafieh district with the familiar rhetorical treats.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cYou want water? You want electricity? You want hope? You want human rights? You want women\u2019s rights? Then vote for Beirut 1,\u201d he said, referring to his electoral list of eight candidates in the 2018 race.<\/p>\n<p>Having set up his opening act, the 36-year-old scion of one of Lebanon\u2019s best-known political families then went in for the kill.<\/p>\n<p>Pumping his fist in the air \u2013 just as his father, former Lebanese president-elect Bashir Gemayel did in his heyday \u2013 the young Gemayel continued: \u201cVote for your sovereignty against those who wear black,\u201d he thundered. \u201cHezbollah is controlling everything in this country, but not parliament. This is the real comeback we seek, not just water, not just electricity, not just human rights, not just women\u2019s rights. We seek them all\u2026 and sovereignty.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Gemayel, who is standing for reelection this year, was addressing the contentious issue of Hezbollah\u2019s weapons and the crowd was lapping it up, erupting into cheers while thrusting flags and banners into the air.<\/p>\n<p>The Lebanese Shiite movement was the only militia that was allowed to keep its weapons after the 1975-90 civil war since Hezbollah maintained the arms were needed to defend Lebanon from Israeli aggression. Following the 2000 Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, however, there have been frequent calls for Hezbollah to put its arsenal under the control of the Lebanese state. They have met with no success.<\/p>\n<p>As an MP for one of Lebanon&#8217;s major Christian parties, the Kataeb, also known as &#8220;the Phalange&#8221;, Gemayel\u2019s call for Hezbollah to give up its weapons was in line with the national ideology of his party.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s not a topic Laury Haytayan \u2013 an independent candidate standing for election for the very first time on a civil society list \u2013 focused on during her campaign.<\/p>\n<p>An oil and gas expert, Haytayan is among an unprecedented wave of women candidates who are running for the May 6 elections in a bid to address Lebanon\u2019s abysmal female representation in parliament. The outgoing 128-seat Lebanese parliament had only four women MPs. This year, a record 86 women candidates are vying for parliamentary seats.<\/p>\n<p>At a caf\u00e9 in downtown Beirut, Haytayan sighed when asked about critics who accuse her fellow civil society candidates of failing to address major national security issues such as Hezbollah\u2019s military arsenal.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cLook, we are all against Hezbollah\u2019s weapons, that\u2019s clear. But the truth is, Hezbollah will never be dissolved without an international consensus,\u201d she explained. \u201cShould I be focused on this issue that I have no control over? I\u2019m interested in the electricity problem, the tax system, housing prices, corruption, transparency, resource management\u2026The politicians want you to focus on this issue [Hezbollah\u2019s weapons] because they want you to forget their own track record.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>After nine years \u2013 a period during which parliament unconstitutionally extended its term three times \u2013 Lebanon is finally going to the polls Sunday in an election that will gauge whether the country is ready for change, or if that\u2019s just the hopes of a section of the population privileged enough to dare to dream.<\/p>\n<p><strong>A new law with flaws<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Expectations for a fundamental change are low as more than 3.6 million registered voters are set to choose from 583 candidates across 15 electoral districts (within these are 27 sub-districts).<\/p>\n<p>A new electoral law passed in June last year institutes a proportional representation system that theoretically should have granted Lebanese voters greater representation and a chance to bypass the endemic elitism under the old system.<\/p>\n<p>In reality though, the electoral law \u2013 which was the product of a compromise between the major political parties \u2013 is so complicated, it has\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.dailystar.com.lb\/News\/Lebanon-News\/2018\/Mar-07\/440551-new-vote-law-leaves-lebanese-perplexed.ashx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">baffled most voters<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The law enables each voter to cast his or her ballot for one of the competing electoral lists and then entitles them to cast one preferential vote for a candidate on the same chosen list.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe new law was supposed to introduce a proportional representation system, which has long been a demand of Lebanese civil society. However it was perverted by amendments within the law. They [the major political parties] chose to give voters a preferential vote within lists. They also chose a preferential role within smaller districts that are often homogeneous, which means it\u2019s a majoritarian system disguised as a proportional one,\u201d explained Karim Emile Bitar, senior fellow at the Paris-based Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (IRIS) and international relations professor at the Beirut-based St. Joseph University.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u2018A reproduction of the current elites\u2019<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span lang=\"EN-US\">Meanwhile the critical problem of Lebanon\u2019s antiquated, colonial-era confessional system, which divides power between the country\u2019s religious communities, remains unchanged.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span lang=\"EN-US\">The 2017 electoral law has merely enabled the old political players to form opportunistic alliances based not on a shared ideology or platform, but on a cynical bid to make it into parliament.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span lang=\"EN-US\">The result, according to most experts, is that the new system is likely to maintain the country\u2019s longstanding balance of power.<\/span>\u00a0\u201cIn all likelihood, the elections will see a reproduction of the current elites. There are likely to be very few surprises,\u201d explained Bitar.<\/p>\n<p><span lang=\"EN-US\">Trapped by the entrenched system,\u00a0civil society groups\u00a0have ended up losing some of their leading figures to traditional political forces. Some of them even chose to ally themselves with members of the same political class they had rallied against.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span lang=\"EN-US\"><b>Warlords and feudal lords playing the democratic game<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<p>The new electoral rules have also created fault lines within Lebanon\u2019s enduring political dynasties \u2013 on top of the existing sectarian divides.<\/p>\n<p>With some candidates and factions competing against each other on the same electoral list, the 2018 campaign has seen brothers competing for the same seat, a son pitted against his father, cousins squabbling for power, and in-laws locked in dead-heat electoral battles.<\/p>\n<p>The family names of many of these candidates have dominated Lebanon\u2019s politics and internecine wars for decades. Political dynasties such as the Gemayels, Jumblatts and the Frangieh have seen second- and third-generation scions dominating the national political scene.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cMany young, liberal, progressive Lebanese are dismayed over why so many voters are still attached to the remnants of feudal families,\u201d acknowledged Bitar. \u201cHowever in Lebanon, there have been a considerable series of political assassinations, which produce waves of sympathy. The son, widow or sister of the assassinated person tries to pursue his legacy and are seen as continuing the struggle that was unfairly stopped.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Outside Beirut and the major Lebanese cities, descendants of feudal families with vast landholdings dating back to the Ottoman era have adapted to the modern, democratic times using a system of economic patronage in exchange for electoral loyalty.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Hezbollah threats and Shiite intimidation<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The failure of the Lebanese state to address wealth disparities or provide services has seen those historically marginalised stick with either modern-day feudal overlords or sectarian groups such as Hezbollah, who hold their Shiite constituency in an iron grip.<\/p>\n<p>The few independent Shiite candidates running against Hezbollah in the group\u2019s southern Lebanese heartland this year complained of systemic harassment and intimidation by the group. A prominent Shiite journalist-candidate made the national headlines when he was beaten up by \u201cHezbollah thugs\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>Despite the bad press and its involvement in the war in Syria, which is draining the Lebanese Shiite community, Hezbollah and its Shiite ally, Amal, are expected to sweep the Shiite vote in Sunday\u2019s poll.<\/p>\n<p>Lokman Slim, a prominent Lebanese Shiite anti-Hezbollah activist, notes that a \u201cShiite malaise\u201d compels many community members to refrain from criticising the movement that has empowered Lebanon\u2019s historically marginalised Shiites.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere\u2019s a big fear of losing what we have gained through Hezbollah and Amal, and we don\u2019t want to be engaged in a new civil war and lose what we have gained,\u201d explained Slim.<\/p>\n<p>While Lebanon \u2013 and the international community \u2013 will have to wait until Monday for the results of the vote, analysts say Hezbollah is likely to be a big winner in the 2018 race if the movement succeeds in mobilising its supporters to go out and vote.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cUnfortunately,\u201d concluded Slim, \u201cI think that on May 7, we will have a parliament controlled by Hezbollah legions and the balance of power in Lebanon will remain unchanged.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>France 24 After nearly a decade and three postponements, Lebanese voters on Sunday are finally electing a new parliament. But a new electoral law has not changed old entitlements and divides, and a real change is not on the cards.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":67,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[139,129,125,53],"class_list":["post-1692","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article","tag-elections","tag-hezbollah","tag-lebanon","tag-parliament"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/middleeastandnorthafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1692","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/middleeastandnorthafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/middleeastandnorthafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/middleeastandnorthafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/67"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/middleeastandnorthafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1692"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/middleeastandnorthafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1692\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1696,"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/middleeastandnorthafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1692\/revisions\/1696"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/middleeastandnorthafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1692"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/middleeastandnorthafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1692"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/middleeastandnorthafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1692"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}