{"id":2224,"date":"2018-10-18T15:22:00","date_gmt":"2018-10-18T15:22:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/middleeastandnorthafricablog\/?p=2224"},"modified":"2018-10-18T15:22:00","modified_gmt":"2018-10-18T15:22:00","slug":"riyadh-arab-allies-threaten-retaliation-but-is-their-bark-worse-than-their-bite","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/middleeastandnorthafricablog\/2018\/10\/18\/riyadh-arab-allies-threaten-retaliation-but-is-their-bark-worse-than-their-bite\/","title":{"rendered":"Riyadh, Arab allies threaten retaliation, but is their bark worse than their bite?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nearly two weeks after the disappearance of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, Saudi Arabia \u2013 aided by its Arab allies \u2013 unleashed a PR offensive against threatened US economic sanctions. But does the threat have bite or is it just bluster?<\/h2>\n

When Crown Prince\u00a0Mohammed bin Salman<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 known by his initials, MBS \u2013 visited Britain and the US earlier this year, the pre-trip barrage of billboards, media interviews and pro-Saudi news coverage was so intense, wags promptly dubbed the young heir to the Saudi throne, \u201cthe prince of PR<\/a>\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

But in the stunned days following the disappearance of\u00a0Jamal Khashoggi<\/a>, the Saudi PR machinery was noticeably slow off the blocks as accusations of Riyadh\u2019s responsibility for the dissident journalist\u2019s suspected murder began to mount.<\/span><\/p>\n

That changed by Monday, October 15, when the oil-rich Gulf kingdom launched a concerted pushback following a weekend that saw the riyal fall to a two-year low and a growing list of top CEOs pulling out of an upcoming Saudi investment conference nicknamed \u201cDavos in the Desert\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

The opening salvos were fired on the front pages of Saudi English-language newspapers, with Monday\u2019s edition of the “Saudi Gazette” proclaiming, \u201cEnough is Enough\u201d with a banner headline followed by the subhead, \u201cKingdom rejects threats to undermine it, vows to respond with tougher action.\u201d The \u201cArab News\u201d daily echoed the tough line, promising, \u201cSaudi Arabia will not be bullied: Arab, Muslim countries stand by Kingdom against false allegations and intimidation.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
<\/p>\n
View image on Twitter<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n
\n
\"View<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n
\n
\n
\n
\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n
<\/div>\n
\n
Mohamad Bazzi<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n
<\/div>\n

\u2714<\/b><\/span><\/span>@BazziNYU<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
<\/div>\n

\u201cEnough is enough\u201d \u2014 front page of @<\/span>Saudi_Gazette<\/span><\/a> on Khashoggi crisis<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n
\n
\n
<\/div>\n

4<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n

2:09 AM – Oct 15, 2018<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n

See Mohamad Bazzi’s other Tweets<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
Twitter Ads info and privacy<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

The headlines followed a\u00a0statement<\/a>\u00a0released Sunday that noted, \u201cThe Kingdom appreciates the brothers\u2019 stand in the face of the campaign of false allegations and falsehoods.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The term \u201cArab brothers\u201d is frequently derided across a region riddled by diplomatic spats and betrayals \u2013 including a failure to put up a muscular, united front on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the chronic lack of unity within the 22-member Arab League.<\/span><\/p>\n

But with pressure growing in Congress for a strong US response to the Khashoggi disappearance, the Saudi PR machinery sputtered back into action this week with a volley of statements and threats by the kingdom\u2019s Arab allies responding with a collective fraternal force.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bahrain\u2019s foreign minister called for a boycott of Uber after the ride-sharing company\u2019s CEO,\u00a0<\/span>Dara Khosrowshahi, pulled out of Davos in the Desert. Kuwait\u2019s deputy prime minister, meanwhile, released a statement rejecting \u201cthe campaign against Saudi Arabia\u201d and supporting the kingdom \u201cin facing all those who wished to harm its sovereignty\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2018<\/span>Stockholm syndrome is real\u2019<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

But perhaps the biggest eyebrow-raiser came from Lebanese Prime Minister-designate\u00a0Saad Hariri<\/a>, whose office released a statement expressing his solidarity with the Gulf kingdom.\u00a0\u201cThe campaigns against\u201d Saudi Arabia, the statement noted, constituted \u201can unacceptable call to drag the region towards further negative developments\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

The statement \u2013 coming nearly a year after Hariri\u2019s bizarre detention in Saudi Arabia, where the Lebanese prime minister was\u00a0reportedly roughed up<\/a>\u00a0before being forced to issue an extraordinary resignation-by-television address \u2013 drew a flurry of snide remarks on Twitter.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cStockholm syndrome is real,\u201d tweeted The Economist\u2019s Middle East correspondent, while a research fellow at the Washington, DC-based Forum for Regional Thinking noted that, \u201c<\/span>Because starving and bombing Yemen, kidnapping and slapping Hariri, then forcing him to quit, was great for regional stability.<\/span>\u201d<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n
<\/div>\n
\n
Gregg Carlstrom<\/span><\/span>@glcarlstrom<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
<\/div>\n

Stockholm syndrome is real<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
<\/div>\n
\n
Al Arabiya English<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n
<\/div>\n

\u2714<\/b><\/span><\/span>@AlArabiya_Eng<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

<\/div>\n

BREAKING: #<\/span>Lebanon<\/span>‘s PM designate Saad Hariri, says campaign against #<\/span>SaudiArabia<\/span> is a breach of regional stability.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
<\/p>\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\"\"<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

<\/div>\n
\n
\n
<\/div>\n

194<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n

1:43 AM – Oct 15, 2018<\/a><\/div>\n
Twitter Ads info and privacy<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n

95 people are talking about this<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
Twitter Ads info and privacy<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

In a\u00a0Washington Post column<\/a>\u00a0written shortly after Hariri was detained in Riyadh in November 2017, Khashoggi warned that \u201cSaudi Arabia is creating a total mess in Lebanon\u201d and noted:\u00a0\u201cIt will be impossible to elect a new prime minister in Lebanon unless Hariri is returned.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Khashoggi was right. It took a diplomatic intervention by French President\u00a0Emmanuel Macron<\/a>\u00a0to convince the Saudis to release Hariri, following which the\u00a0May 2018 Lebanese general elections<\/a>proceeded without any major incidents.<\/p>\n

It was the sort of criticism for which, Khashoggi\u2019s friends say, the Saudi dissident paid with his life. The respected commentator, who was living in voluntary exile in the US, never emerged from an appointment to pick up an official document at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul earlier this month.<\/span><\/p>\n

Turkish officials and many Middle East experts believe Saudi Arabia is responsible for Khashoggi\u2019s suspected killing, an accusation Riyadh denies.<\/span><\/p>\n

The familiar \u2018rogue killers\u2019 explanation<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Nearly two weeks after Khashoggi\u2019s disappearance, Saudi Arabia\u2019s ageing monarch, King Salman, for the first time publicly entered the fray with personal phone calls to US President\u00a0Donald Trump<\/a>\u00a0and his Turkish counterpart,\u00a0Recep Tayyip Erdogan<\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Speaking to reporters Monday, Trump said the Saudi monarch \u201cdenied any knowledge\u201d of what happened to Khashoggi, adding that, \u201c<\/span>it sounded to me like maybe these could have been rogue killers. I mean, who knows? We’re going to try getting to the bottom of it very soon, but his was a flat denial.”<\/span><\/p>\n

The \u201crogue killers path\u201d, tweeted Turkey expert Soner Cagaptay, might provide Erdogan an \u201cexit ramp\u201d that \u201cwould allow him to walk away looking good and it does not undermine the Turkish economy\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n
<\/div>\n
\n
Soner Cagaptay<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n
<\/div>\n

\u2714<\/b><\/span><\/span>@SonerCagaptay<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
<\/div>\n

Erdogan, too, might consider \u201crogue killers\u201d path re: #<\/span>Khashoggi<\/span><\/a>. Ideally, he does not want a rupture with Saudis. This \u201cexit ramp\u201d would allow him walk away looking good and it does not undermine the Turkish economy. Could even predict Saudis helping Turkey\u2019s economy after that<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
<\/div>\n
\n
Jennifer Jacobs<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n
<\/div>\n

\u2714<\/b><\/span><\/span>@JenniferJJacobs<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n
\n
Replying to @JenniferJJacobs<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

ROGUE KILLERS:<\/p>\n

\u201cWe are going to leave nothing uncovered. With that being said, the king firmly denied any knowledge of it. He didn’t really know, maybe, I don’t want to get into his mind but it sounded to me like maybe these could have been rogue killers. Who knows?\u201c Trump said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

<\/div>\n
\n
\n
<\/div>\n

16<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n

10:07 AM – Oct 15, 2018<\/a><\/div>\n
Twitter Ads info and privacy<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n

See Soner Cagaptay’s other Tweets<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
Twitter Ads info and privacy<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

But it\u2019s also a textbook explanation provided by autocrats to obfuscate the dark acts sometimes committed by their regimes, and it\u2019s unlikely to sway public opinion in the United States or Europe. Nor is it likely to ease pressure on US and European authorities to take action against Saudi Arabia if a credible account of what really happened to Khashoggi is not forthcoming.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIt will be complicated for the US and the Europeans not to respond at all. There are already strong reactions from several US senators calling for sanctions against Saudi Arabia,\u201d noted Camille Lons of the European Council on Foreign Relations in an interview with FRANCE 24.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Shiite threat from the East<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

The threat of US sanctions sparked a pugnacious\u00a0column<\/a>\u00a0by\u00a0<\/span>Turki Aldakhil, a close associate of MBS and general manager of the kingdom\u2019s state-controlled Al Arabiya news network. Claiming that Riyadh was discussing more than 30 potential ways of responding, Aldakhil warned that the potential retaliation presented \u201ccatastrophic scenarios that would hit the US economy much harder than Saudi Arabia\u2019s economic climate<\/span>\u201d.<\/p>\n

If the US imposes sanctions on Saudi Arabia, Aldakhil noted that\u00a0<\/span>Russia and China were \u201cready to fulfill Riyadh\u2019s military needs\u201d and that the new Moscow-Riyadh nexus \u201c<\/span>will lead to a [Saudi] closeness to Iran and maybe even a reconciliation with it<\/span>\u201d.<\/p>\n

Most regional experts, however, were not impressed by the threats.\u00a0<\/span>\u201cEven if there may be threats of replacing US arms deals by increased purchases from Russia and China, their weapons systems are not up to US levels. They will never totally replace US arms sales,\u201d noted Lons.<\/p>\n

Aldhakhil\u2019s warnings that Saudi Arabia would be forced to mend fences with its archenemy, Iran, had even less credibility.\u00a0<\/span>\u201cIran is considered by the Saudis as their main security threat,\u201d explained Lons. \u201cBut in terms of a threat, it is less about direct war [between the two countries] than about the biggest fear of the Saudi royal family, which is linked to internal regime stability.\u201d<\/p>\n

Saudi Arabia has long discriminated against its Shiites, which constitutes around 10 to 15 percent of the total population and mostly live in the oil-rich Eastern Province. The ruling House of Saud tends to view its Shiite population as a fifth column for Iran, a claim that has been amplified since MBS launched a military campaign against Shiite Houthi rebels in Yemen.\u00a0<\/span>\u201cSaudi Arabia has often used Iran as the archenemy to create cohesion around the regime. It\u2019s very deeply entrenched in the Saudi feeling of stability and security,\u201d explained Lons.<\/p>\n

The extent of Riyadh\u2019s opposition to the Obama administration\u2019s signing of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal underscored the Sunni Wahhabi kingdom\u2019s fears that its Shiite nemesis could forge ties with Washington.<\/span><\/p>\n

Business as usual?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Many analysts believe threats that Saudi Arabia could simply decrease its oil production, triggering an increase in prices, could prove far more complicated in reality.\u00a0<\/span>\u201cThe Saudi economy remains heavily dependent on oil and its economic structures are not that strong,\u201d said Lons. \u201cThe US remains the kingdom\u2019s main ally and the Saudis do not have the leverage they pretend to have in this regard.\u201d<\/p>\n

In the case of Riyadh\u2019s Arab allies, the threat is even less significant. \u201cThe Saudis are so important in the region, they don\u2019t need the alliance,\u201d Lons said.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Arab brotherhood display of solidarity, then, was merely aimed at demonstrating that Saudi Arabia is not isolated on the international stage.<\/span><\/p>\n

The biggest threat could arise internally, from within the ruling House of Saud. But given the opaque nature of Saudi power circles, few analysts are willing to go on record to forecast how the dice might roll inside the kingdom.<\/span><\/p>\n

MBS appears to be popular in Saudi Arabia, particularly among young Saudis. But with his crackdown on corruption\u00a0<\/span>\u2013\u00a0which saw dozens of leading Saudi businessmen detained in the luxury Ritz Carlton last year and forced to pay massive fines\u00a0<\/span>\u2013\u00a0MBS has likely made enemies in top business and power circles. The extent of the dissent in the tightly controlled kingdom is hard to gauge, however.<\/span><\/p>\n

Riyadh obviously hopes that the furor surrounding the Khashoggi case will diminish with time and the kingdom will go back to business as usual. But the raft of international headlines following the disappearance of the Saudi dissident is not likely to be good for business for the Gulf kingdom.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nearly two weeks after the disappearance of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, Saudi Arabia \u2013 aided by its Arab allies \u2013 unleashed a PR offensive against threatened US economic sanctions. But does the threat have bite or is it just bluster? When Crown Prince\u00a0Mohammed bin Salman\u00a0\u2013 known by his initials, MBS \u2013 visited Britain and the US earlier this year, the… Read more »<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":96,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2224","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/middleeastandnorthafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2224","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/middleeastandnorthafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/middleeastandnorthafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/middleeastandnorthafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/96"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/middleeastandnorthafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2224"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/middleeastandnorthafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2224\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2225,"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/middleeastandnorthafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2224\/revisions\/2225"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/middleeastandnorthafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2224"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/middleeastandnorthafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2224"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/middleeastandnorthafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2224"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}