{"id":2381,"date":"2018-11-08T15:57:11","date_gmt":"2018-11-08T15:57:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/middleeastandnorthafricablog\/?p=2381"},"modified":"2018-11-08T15:57:11","modified_gmt":"2018-11-08T15:57:11","slug":"iran-sanctions-explained-u-s-goals-and-the-view-from-tehran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/middleeastandnorthafricablog\/2018\/11\/08\/iran-sanctions-explained-u-s-goals-and-the-view-from-tehran\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran Sanctions Explained: U.S. Goals, and the View From Tehran"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"StoryBodyCompanionColumn css-p1yi70\">\n<div class=\"css-4w7y5l\">\n<p class=\"css-1xl4flh e2kc3sl0\">The Trump administration called it the\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/home.treasury.gov\/news\/press-releases\/sm541\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">biggest sanctions action<\/a>\u00a0the United States had ever undertaken against Iran. Iran\u2019s president called it an\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.presstv.com\/Detail\/2018\/11\/05\/579118\/Iran-US-sanctions-President-Rouhani-break-sanctions\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">act of \u201ceconomic war\u201d\u00a0<\/a>and said his country would win.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1xl4flh e2kc3sl0\">The package of severe economic penalties imposed against Iran on Monday by the United States is the most significant part of President Trump\u2019s decision last May to abandon the Iranian nuclear agreement of 2015, which he has described as a disaster.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1xl4flh e2kc3sl0\">The penalties include some gaping exceptions that could undermine their impact, among them: Iran\u2019s biggest petroleum customers, like China and India, will not be penalized, at least for six months.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1xl4flh e2kc3sl0\">Nonetheless, Iran\u2019s oil, shipping and banking industries could take a significant hit and its weakened currency could plunge further under the sanctions, which Mr. Trump has said are intended to stop what he considers Iran\u2019s unacceptable actions in the Middle East.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"StoryBodyCompanionColumn css-p1yi70\">\n<div class=\"css-4w7y5l\">\n<p class=\"css-1xl4flh e2kc3sl0\">President Hassan Rouhani of Iran, emboldened by widespread criticism of Mr. Trump\u2019s sanctions policy, including from America\u2019s closest allies, responded defiantly on Monday. He said his country would not bend to \u201cthe language of force, pressure and threats,\u201d and vowed to break the sanctions.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1xl4flh e2kc3sl0\">While the outcome of the confrontation is unclear, experts on Iran and sanctions said\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2018\/04\/11\/world\/middleeast\/currency-iran-economy.html?module=inline\">Iran\u2019s already struggling economy<\/a>\u00a0will definitely feel more pain.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1xl4flh e2kc3sl0\">\u201cThis will make everything substantially more difficult if not impossible in some areas for Iran,\u201d said Farhad R. Alavi, managing partner of the Akrivis Law Group, a Washington firm that specializes in sanctions and export law. \u201cRevenues are coming down and costs are going up.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1xl4flh e2kc3sl0\">Here are the basics of the administration\u2019s latest Iran sanctions, Iran\u2019s response, and what could happen next:<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"link-4bd962ad\" class=\"css-rcspn7 eqpy7av0\">What did the United States do Monday?<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-1xl4flh e2kc3sl0\">The Trump administration made good on its pledge to reimpose the most economically onerous penalties on Iran that had been eased or lifted under\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2015\/03\/31\/world\/middleeast\/simple-guide-nuclear-talks-iran-us.html?module=inline\">the nuclear agreement<\/a>\u00a0negotiated by the United States and other world powers three years ago.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1xl4flh e2kc3sl0\">The administration threatened to penalize buyers of Iranian oil as part of its stated goal to reduce Iran\u2019s petroleum exports to zero. It blacklisted 50 Iranian banks and subsidiaries, more than 200 people and ships, Iran\u2019s national airline and more than 65 Iranian aircraft.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"story-ad-2-wrapper\" class=\"ResponsiveAd-storyBodyAd--35v2w\">\n<div class=\"ad story-ad-2-wrapper\">\n<div id=\"story-ad-2\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"StoryBodyCompanionColumn css-p1yi70\">\n<div class=\"css-4w7y5l\">\n<p class=\"css-1xl4flh e2kc3sl0\">Under such sanctions, the United States can seize assets under its jurisdiction that are owned by blacklisted people and entities. The sanctions also forbid commercial relations with those people or entities.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"link-182d40af\" class=\"css-rcspn7 eqpy7av0\">What does Mr. Trump want from Iran?<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-1xl4flh e2kc3sl0\">The president contends that the nuclear agreement did nothing to deter Iran from eventually obtaining nuclear weapons, and wants the restrictions imposed by the accord to be permanent. He also wants Iran to abandon its ballistic missile development and to stop\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2017\/08\/27\/world\/middleeast\/hezbollah-iran-syria-israel-lebanon.html?module=inline\">supporting militant groups<\/a>\u00a0in Syria, Yemen and elsewhere that the United States regards as terrorist organizations.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"link-57148b01\" class=\"css-rcspn7 eqpy7av0\">What does Iran say?<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-1xl4flh e2kc3sl0\">The Iranians have accused the United States of duplicity and of violating international law for reneging on an agreement it reached not just with Iran but five other major powers: Britain, China, France, Russia and Germany. All of them still support the accord, and its validity was reaffirmed by a United Nations Security Council resolution.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1xl4flh e2kc3sl0\">President Rouhani said that his country would \u201cproudly break\u201d the reimposed sanctions and that Iran was engaged in \u201can economic war\u201d with the United States.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1xl4flh e2kc3sl0\">Punctuating the message of defiance, Iran\u2019s military tested\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tasnimnews.com\/en\/news\/2018\/11\/05\/1869689\/iran-tests-modified-version-of-air-defense-missile-systems-in-war-game\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">new missiles<\/a>as part of its air defense system in a large exercise hours after the sanctions resumed.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1xl4flh e2kc3sl0\">Iran\u2019s foreign minister, Mohammed Javad Zarif, an outspoken critic of Mr. Trump\u2019s, said the sanctions reinforced<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/JZarif\/status\/1059400821815816193\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u00a0what he called the growing isolation of the United States<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"StoryBodyCompanionColumn css-p1yi70\">\n<div class=\"css-4w7y5l\">\n<h2 id=\"link-3d2ebaec\" class=\"css-rcspn7 eqpy7av0\">Why did the U.S. grant exceptions on Iran\u2019s oil exports?<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-1xl4flh e2kc3sl0\">The Trump administration says it wants to deny Iran the revenue it gets from oil, the country\u2019s most important export, but to do so in a way that will not destabilize the world market. A total ban on Iranian oil exports could constrict the supply and spike prices \u2014 an outcome Mr. Trump regards as politically dangerous.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1xl4flh e2kc3sl0\">On Monday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced that as part of the reimposed sanctions, eight important oil importers \u2014 China, India, South Korea, Turkey, Italy, Greece, Japan and Taiwan \u2014\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2018\/11\/02\/world\/middleeast\/us-iran-sanctions-oil-waivers.html?module=inline\">would receive 180-day exceptions<\/a>, or waivers, letting them buy Iranian oil as long as they show reductions in the amounts.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1xl4flh e2kc3sl0\">More than 20 countries already have cut their imports of Iranian oil, shrinking Iran\u2019s exports by about one million barrels a day, Mr. Pompeo said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1xl4flh e2kc3sl0\">American officials would need great leverage to induce China and India, Iran\u2019s biggest customers, to cut off all their imports; the two nations have enormous energy needs. Chinese leaders are incensed over the intensifying trade war begun by Mr. Trump, and they are wary about the diplomacy Mr. Trump is conducting with North Korea over that country\u2019s nuclear program.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1xl4flh e2kc3sl0\">Given all that, experts say, it is unlikely that China and India will end all imports of Iranian oil \u2014 even after the 180-day waivers expire.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1xl4flh e2kc3sl0\">\u201cI think the U.S. made the calculation that market stability and geopolitical relationships superseded interests in trying to bring down Iranian exports,\u201d said Henry Rome, an Iran analyst at the Eurasia Group, a Washington-based political risk consultancy.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"StoryBodyCompanionColumn css-p1yi70\">\n<div class=\"css-4w7y5l\">\n<h2 id=\"link-2046a9b7\" class=\"css-rcspn7 eqpy7av0\">Have the oil sanctions affected prices?<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-1xl4flh e2kc3sl0\">The global petroleum market, having anticipated that the Trump administration would grant some exceptions, had no significant reaction to the announcement. Prices of Brent crude, an international benchmark, were little changed Monday, and in the range of $73 to $74 a barrel.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1xl4flh e2kc3sl0\">Ellen R. Wald, a senior fellow at the Global Energy Center of the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based research group, said in a telephone news briefing about the sanctions that any price increases could be further blunted by the additional supplies anticipated next year from other exporters, including the United States.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1xl4flh e2kc3sl0\">If that happens, she said, the administration \u201ccan push countries to cut Iranian imports even more and not see much effect on American consumers.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"link-7c8c8767\" class=\"css-rcspn7 eqpy7av0\">Why are European allies angry?<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-1xl4flh e2kc3sl0\">Despite Mr. Trump\u2019s complaints about the nuclear agreement, Britain, France and Germany regard it as a success. The International Atomic Energy Agency, the proliferation monitor of the United Nations, has repeatedly said Iran is in compliance with the deal\u2019s terms.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1xl4flh e2kc3sl0\">So the Europeans are angry the United States is using its enormous economic leverage to threaten European companies that wish to do business with Iran. Many of them have abandoned the country.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1xl4flh e2kc3sl0\">More broadly, the Europeans fear instability in Iran, which could bring security problems and migrants, and they worry the United States is taking steps that could destabilize the country.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1xl4flh e2kc3sl0\">The Europeans have sought to establish an\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2018\/11\/05\/world\/europe\/us-iran-sanctions-europe.html?module=inline\">alternative payment system with Iran<\/a>\u00a0that would bypass American sanctions<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2018\/11\/05\/world\/europe\/us-iran-sanctions-europe.html?module=inline\">,<\/a>\u00a0enabling them to conduct business without risking penalties from the United States. But the system has yet to be completed, and the Americans have essentially ridiculed the idea, warning that they could sabotage the system by simply adding it to their sanctions blacklist.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"StoryBodyCompanionColumn css-p1yi70\">\n<div class=\"css-4w7y5l\">\n<h2 id=\"link-1182458e\" class=\"css-rcspn7 eqpy7av0\">Despite Iran\u2019s bluster, are its leaders worried?<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-1xl4flh e2kc3sl0\">Some speeches from Iranian officials have reflected concern. Farhad Dajpesand, Iran\u2019s minister of economy, said this was probably the most \u201csensitive\u201d period for the country since the government\u2019s founding after the Islamic revolution in 1979.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1xl4flh e2kc3sl0\">The minister of interior, Abdul Raza Rahmani Fazli, suggested that the recent wave of economic protests in Iran was a serious challenge. The protests were driven in part by the failure of the nuclear agreement to bring the economic benefits Mr. Rouhani had promised, although corruption and mismanagement also were regarded as underlying causes.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"link-6073b06\" class=\"css-rcspn7 eqpy7av0\">Is Iran\u2019s economy at risk of collapse?<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-1xl4flh e2kc3sl0\">Iran\u2019s biggest critics may say it is, pointing to a severe drop in the value of Iran\u2019s currency since Mr. Trump first took office. But many Iran analysts say the impact of the reimposed sanctions is far from clear.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1xl4flh e2kc3sl0\">\u201cThere\u2019s a big difference between crisis and collapse,\u201d Mr. Rome said. \u201cI think they\u2019re on the verge of a crisis. They will have a very difficult time ensuring sufficient food supplies and medicine. But Iran has been through severe challenges in the past. There\u2019s nothing we\u2019ve seen that they\u2019re somehow on the verge of just giving up.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Trump administration called it the\u00a0biggest sanctions action\u00a0the United States had ever undertaken against Iran. Iran\u2019s president called it an\u00a0act of \u201ceconomic war\u201d\u00a0and said his country would win. The package of severe economic penalties imposed against Iran on Monday by the United States is the most significant part of President Trump\u2019s decision last May to abandon the Iranian nuclear agreement&#8230; <a href=\"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/middleeastandnorthafricablog\/2018\/11\/08\/iran-sanctions-explained-u-s-goals-and-the-view-from-tehran\/\">Read more &raquo;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":131,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[157],"class_list":["post-2381","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article","tag-ny-times"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/middleeastandnorthafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2381","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/middleeastandnorthafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/middleeastandnorthafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/middleeastandnorthafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/131"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/middleeastandnorthafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2381"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/middleeastandnorthafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2381\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2384,"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/middleeastandnorthafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2381\/revisions\/2384"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/middleeastandnorthafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2381"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/middleeastandnorthafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2381"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/middleeastandnorthafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2381"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}