{"id":689,"date":"2017-09-21T23:22:45","date_gmt":"2017-09-21T23:22:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/middleeastandnorthafricablog\/?p=689"},"modified":"2017-09-21T23:54:54","modified_gmt":"2017-09-21T23:54:54","slug":"iraqi-kurds-set-to-vote-on-independence-panicking-neighbors-and-washington","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/middleeastandnorthafricablog\/2017\/09\/21\/iraqi-kurds-set-to-vote-on-independence-panicking-neighbors-and-washington\/","title":{"rendered":"Washington Post: Iraqi Kurds set to vote on independence, panicking neighbors and Washington"},"content":{"rendered":"

https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/middle_east\/iraqi-kurds-set-to-vote-on-independence-panicking-neighbors-and-washington\/2017\/09\/18\/2ca88c1c-9a6d-11e7-af6a-6555caaeb8dc_story.html?utm_term=.aeda4ee4e443<\/a><\/p>\n

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Washington Post<\/p>\n

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Posted by: Colin Bunn<\/p>\n

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By\u00a0Tamer El-Ghobashy<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0Mustafa Salim<\/span>\u00a0September 19<\/span><\/div>\n
KIRKUK, Iraq \u2014<\/span>\u00a0Iraqi Kurds are set to vote next week on independence from Iraq in what many say is a popular expression of their desire for self-determination after suffering for a century under war and dictatorship.<\/p>\n

But their staunchest ally, the United States, opposes the move, as do Iraqi rivals and regional powers. They say it could spark new conflicts and aggravate old ones at a time when the nation is on the\u00a0cusp of defeating the Islamic State.<\/a><\/p>\n

Kurdish officials pushing the Sept. 25 referendum say there is no need to panic. The poll, which is widely expected to result in a resounding vote to secede from Iraq, is simply an important first step in what would be a lengthy but amicable divorce from the Iraqi state, they say.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe will ourselves not initiate a clash or a fight,\u201d said Rowsch Shaways, a former deputy prime minister of Iraq and the head of the Kurdish delegation negotiating with Baghdad. \u201cWe are pledging dialogue and a peaceful solution.\u201d<\/p>\n

Still, the lead-up to next week\u2019s vote has already resulted in political fallout and threats of violence, and the United States has shown little ability to persuade the Kurds to delay the referendum in favor of continued negotiations with Baghdad over disputed territories and revenue-sharing.<\/p>\n

<\/a>\"\"Iraqi Kurds take part in an event in Irbil on Sept. 16 to urge people to vote in the independence referendum. (Safin Hamed\/Agence France-Presse\/Getty Images)<\/span><\/div>\n

Neighbors Turkey and Iran, concerned over calls for independence by their own sizable Kurdish populations, have threatened to close borders and cancel trade and security agreements with Iraqi Kurdistan.<\/p>\n

Anxiety over the referendum was most evident in Kirkuk, a province in central Iraq that has vast oil reserves and is populated by a mix of Kurds, Arabs and Turkmens. Over several decades, it has been the center of demographic manipulation projects based on the ethnicity of whoever hoped to rule it.<\/p>\n

Violence flared in the provincial capital, also called Kirkuk, on Monday night when gunfire outside the headquarters of a local Turkmen party left two Kurds dead, prompting Kurdish riot police to descend on the scene. Najat Hussein, an official with the provincial government, said several \u00advehicles and motorcycles drove by the headquarters and opened fire. Guards at the party office shot back, killing two of the alleged attackers, he said.<\/p>\n

Hussein said it was not immediately clear whether the violence was related to the referendum. \u201cWe hope it won\u2019t be the spark that will be the beginning of a fire that will inflame the whole city,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Police imposed a curfew following the fatal shooting and other smaller skirmishes that broke out between Kurds and Turkmens, local officials said. In one instance, people torched a police car.<\/p>\n

Kirkuk has been claimed by both Arabs and Kurds for decades, and a U.S.-brokered process after the 2003 invasion to determine the city\u2019s disposition has gone nowhere.<\/p>\n

It is legally under the authority of the central government but has been governed by Kurds since 2014, when Kurdish peshmerga fighters took Kirkuk as the Iraqi military buckled and retreated under the threat of an Islamic State assault.<\/p>\n

<\/a>\"\"Turkish tanks are seen near the Habur crossing between Turkey and Iraq during a military drill on Sept. 18, 2017, a week before Iraq’s Kurdish region holds an independence referendum. (AFP\/Getty Images\/AFP\/Getty Images)<\/span><\/div>\n

[Battle for Mosul: How Iraqi forces defeated the Islamic State<\/a>]<\/i><\/p>\n

Since then, the semiautonomous Kurdistan Regional Government, which the United States helped create in northern Iraq after 1991, has asserted its power, exporting oil independently and patrolling its prosperous streets.<\/p>\n

Iraq\u2019s parliament last week voted to oust the Kirkuk provincial governor, a Kurdish physician with\u00a0dual U.S. citizenship,<\/a>\u00a0over his support for the referendum. He has refused to step down. For months before that, he and his Arab deputy governor stopped talking because of differences over the independence vote.<\/p>\n

Streets here are bereft of the green, orange and white Kurdish regional government flags and banners urging participation that have lined boulevards in other Kurdish cities.<\/p>\n

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Entreaties to vote \u201cyes\u201d are more subtle, and the loud campaign for high turnout that has produced massive rallies in the Kurdistan capital, Irbil, has been replaced with quieter debates among neighbors and friends who hope the referendum will not disturb their fragile coexistence.<\/p>\n

\u201cI have lots of Kurdish friends, and there are no tensions,\u201d said Ahmed Waleed, a 31-year-old Arab who owns a men\u2019s clothing shop.\u00a0\u201cNo one knows if this will continue after the referendum.\u201d<\/p>\n

The United Nations\u00a0has opposed the referendum<\/a>, saying it threatens Iraq\u2019s unity. No international observers will participate in monitoring the vote, raising questions about its credibility.<\/p>\n

Rakan Saeed al-Jobouri, the Arab deputy governor of Kirkuk, said Arabs there have come to him with fears of forced displacements by Kurdish security forces under the rubric of fighting terrorism. Human Rights Watch\u00a0said this has already happened<\/a>\u00a0since late last year.<\/p>\n

\u201cLegally, constitutionally and practically, [the referendum] is totally compromised,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

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Jobouri said that if independence is approved, he and other Arab officials in the city will ask Baghdad for federal protection \u2014 which raises the specter of Iraq\u2019s military entering the city to assert control and potentially sparking armed conflict with peshmerga forces already in Kirkuk.<\/p>\n

In an interview with the Associated Press, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, who opposes the referendum,\u00a0said he would deploy<\/a>\u00a0Iraq\u2019s military to restore order if unrest breaks out in response to the vote. On Monday, Iraq\u2019s Supreme Court ordered the suspension of the referendum after Abadi argued that it is unconstitutional. But Kurdish officials did not budge.<\/p>\n

Kirkuk has also been the focal point of internal Kurdish disagreements about the prospect of an independent state. It is controlled by a political party whose members have questioned the intentions of Kurdistan President Masoud Barzani\u2019s party.<\/p>\n

[Barzani: The time has come for independence vote<\/a>]<\/i><\/p>\n

Kurdish critics of Barzani say he is using the vote to solidify his power and legacy at a time when his authority is weak because of a financial crisis. Declining oil prices have stalled the economy, and civil servants and peshmerga fighters have not received full salaries for years. The regional government is billions of dollars in debt, and its deputy prime minister said the economic decline is a greater threat to Kurds than the Islamic State.<\/p>\n

Enthusiasm for the referendum has also been tepid in Sulaymaniyah, one of the three large provinces that make up the Kurdistan region.<\/p>\n

Analysts say Barzani is overreaching by including Kirkuk in the referendum. If the vote for independence there comes back \u201cno,\u201d or if \u201cyes\u201d fails to win by a large margin, Baghdad could use the results for leverage to scuttle the overall project for Kurdish independence. \u201cHolding a referendum there without concern for Arab and Turkmen interests could result in the refusal of independence and resorting to violence,\u201d\u00a0said Kamal Chomani, a Kurdish analyst with the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Peace, who opposes the referendum.<\/p>\n

Kirkuk\u2019s status has implications beyond Iraq\u2019s borders and could ignite a wider regional conflict.<\/p>\n

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has chided Barzani \u2014 a longtime ally \u2014 for \u201cpolitical inexperience\u201d in pressing ahead with the referendum. Erdogan has repeatedly described the territorial integrity of neighboring Iraq as sacrosanct and a matter of national security for his country.<\/p>\n

Opposition leaders have pressed Erdogan to take a harder line on the vote, citing Turkey\u2019s deep ties to Turkmens in Iraq, especially in Kirkuk.<\/p>\n

The Turkish army said Monday that it has launched military exercises on the border with Iraqi Kurdistan, according to local Turkish news reports.<\/p>\n

[Quest for independent Kurdistan enters a new phase<\/a>]<\/i><\/p>\n

The United States has used the rhetoric of fighting terrorism to encourage Barzani to postpone the referendum, but the episode has illustrated a rare instance of U.S. impotence in swaying Kurdish leaders. After months of failed talks, the White House\u00a0issued a blunt statement<\/a>\u00a0last week urging the Kurdish government to call off the vote, which it described as \u201cprovocative and destabilizing.\u201d<\/p>\n

A U.S. official involved in negotiations with the Kurds, who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive talks, said that the Trump administration has not threatened to withhold the Defense Department\u2019s $22 million fund for the peshmerga but that it could be used as a \u201clever of influence.\u201d<\/p>\n

Defunding the peshmerga, however, would damage U.S. interests in Iraq, where it is heavily involved in the fight against the Islamic State, the official said. Instead, diplomats have urged the Kurds to consider Iraq\u2019s unpredictable politics.<\/p>\n

They have argued that Abadi, a pro-U.S. prime minister who has pushed back against Iranian influence, is the best partner the Kurds have to secure their interests. Holding the referendum could empower more-sectarian political forces and bring them to power in Iraqi elections next year, the official said.<\/p>\n

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