The government of Afghanistan and Taliban leadership continue peace talks initiated in September, with the procedure whereby negotiations are to be made having been outlined this December. The goal of the Afghan government is to draw a ceasefire and a disarmament of Taliban security forces, while the Taliban seeks foremost the ousting of imposing foreign powers and recovering old political influence.
The progression of these negotiations comes as civilian violence once again rises. Notably, in the last month, five Afghan journalists have been killed. Afghanistan blames the Taliban; the Taliban blames independent actors. Nevertheless, discussion on compromise has begun with both agendas in mind.
The Afghan government has heavily emphasized the free role of women in an agreed, joint society. Their delegation for the negotiations includes four women to represent interest in equality of sex. The Taliban’s history of women’s rights is repressive: under their leadership, women were not allowed to receive an education or leave their homes unaccompanied by a man.
To the citizenry of the US, successful negotiations would be very ideal. The withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan this year has been popular, and a full or near-full withdrawal from any military involvement with Afghanistan as the Taliban propounds is a much desired ending to a decades-long war. However, a different and more worrying perspective is taken by American government and party leaders.
That the only solution to our most notorious overseas conflict has been to withdraw all offensive involvement, after waiting twenty years, sets an unpromising new precedent for US foreign policy. Past interventions reflected negatively among the populace often are proven to have only damaged the objective state, and possible future interventions such as in Burma or escalations in Syria and Iraq are put in danger of being too infeasible to justify to both the people and their representatives.
Much to the contrary, Afghanistan’s neighboring countries, especially Pakistan and Iran, will enjoy far more stable borders and relations. Over the last two decades, any hope of positive diplomatic relations between Afghanistan and his neighbors has been crushed by shaky and weak government. Both countries may in the future be more able to get a handle on the exchanges of terrorism upon the other by their own nationals, by consequence of a more reliable government. Iran, despite holding fair relations with Afghanistan, sees more eye-to-eye with the Taliban and more often speaks with them on diplomatic matters pertaining to the state of Afghanistan. With a Taliban integrated into the Afghan government, I expect that Iran will expand bilateral trade and further open their borders to Afghanis.
Geopolitically, Afghanistan is far more strategically important to global powers than its neighbors or even themselves. Maintaining a Central Asian foothold is crucial for Russia, and put at risk recently with the Karabakh War, Russia has very good reason to support the Taliban’s integration into the Afghan government and retain a significant ally. China has also recently sought interested in Afghan appeasement, including them in their Belt and Road Initiative to develop infrastructure and strengthen Eastern brotherhood in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Chinese geopolitical interest in Afghanistan is in stability; without Americans in the region, Western China presents an easy target, which would go against the pledge of justice and unity Beijing has made to their west.
American interest in Afghanistan lies foremost in energy security, but not strictly directly via the state itself. Afghanistan is a hotbed for anti-imperialist terrorists who often threaten the trade between long-time trading partners, and securing the state would be ideal to widespread stabilization through the Middle East. Alongside this, Afghanistan’s drug trafficking has led neighbors to support the more wealthy and headstrong Taliban over the Afghan government. With American troops now uninvolved in the offensive in Afghanistan, though, the concern of drug trafficking is more or less lifted.