Addressing the upper house of the Afghan parliament on the weekend, envoy Alexander Mantytskiy was quoted as saying, “Zamir Kabulov (a high-ranking official in Russia’s foreign ministry) said our interests are the same as Taliban in fighting Daesh. …” Kabulov is believed to be the chief driver of Russia’s policies towards Afghanistan and Pakistan, and is believed to be responsible for Russia’s outreach to Pakistan. During the recent Heart of Asia ministerial in Amritsar, Kabulov stood out for his criticism of both India and Afghanistan, who had taken Pakistan to task for its continued support to terror groups. A few weeks ago, Kabulov was quoted by journalists as saying, “The IS [Daesh] Afghan wing – poses a great threat to us. That is dangerous for us because they are really global jihadists, that is the same as al-Qaida was at the beginning of its way in Afghanistan and they customized to Central Asia with all consequences for us.”
If this is indeed Russia’s new stance on the Taliban and Daesh, it will be problematic for India, Afghanistan and even the US. It will, however, be music for Pakistan. Russia’s position would be difficult for the Ghani government to accept, which has been fighting the Taliban for over a decade. If Russia, one of Kabul’s big supporters and supplier of weapon systems, actually strikes a deal with Kabul’s enemy no 1 to go after a third enemy, it could weaken the global coalition against Taliban, and their brand of extremism and terrorism. It would be hard for India and even the US to accept this as well, given that the US has spent over 15 years fighting them.
India has not yet commented on this latest development, though Afghan official sources said they had had talks with the Indian government about Russia’s changing stand. “We want India to speak to Russia to clarify where it stands,” Afghan ambassador to India, Shaida Abdali said.
Indian security officials also believe Taliban is the greater malign force in Afghanistan, not ISIS. This puts India, Russia and Iran on opposite camps, countries that fought together against the Taliban in the 1990s.
Interestingly, the UNSC 1267 monitoring committee in its latest report says ISIS has been “weakening” in Afghanistan since 2015. The committee noted the “number of ISIL fighters in eastern Afghanistan had dropped to about 1,600 … located mainly in the districts of Deh Bala, Kot, Achin and Naziyan in Nangarhar Province. About 200 ISIL fighters were based in Kunar province.” The UNSC panel observed that around half of ISIS members in Afghanistan were foreign, “with a large portion of fighters hailing from the Afghanistan-Pakistan border” and returning Afghan fighters.
The USA, NATO, India have failed to defeat the Taliban. They have spent close to $1.5 Trillion, Killed over a Millions Afghan People and yet they have not prevailed.Naveed Khan