In January 2022, Iran’s Supreme Leader gave his official approval to a new 20-year cooperation deal between Iran and Russia. The agreement will replace the 10-year deal signed in March 2001 and has been expanded not only in duration but also in scope and scale. The new deal includes far-going agreements on defense and energy. This can include the deal granting Russia the first right of extraction in the Iranian section of the Caspian Sea, which is estimated to have around 48 billion barrels of oil and 292 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas in reserves. Russia will be granted the same right of first extraction to Iran’s major oil and gas fields in the Khorramshahr and nearby Ilam provinces that border Iraq. Additionally, These shared fields will enable effective and free movement of personnel from the Iranian side to the Iraqi side, and the utilization of key oil and gas developments across Iraq is a key part of Iran’s longstanding plan, fully supported by Russia, to build a ‘land bridge’ to the Mediterranean Sea coast of Syria. This would allow Iran and Russia to increase weapons delivery.
Russian and Iranian partnership makes sense as both states have common interests: supporting the Syrian government, and challenging/pushing out Western influence. Their collaboration strengthens both of their positions in the region which can conspire into geopolitical consequences for the United States. Following this 20-year deal between Iran and Russia I believe implications will follow as much will change in the Middle East, southern Europe, and Asia as Iran will have a much-extended military reach that will give it much more leverage to make political demands across those regions. This reach also means that countries in these areas will feel that continuing to rely on the U.S. for their protection.
Because of the growing relations between Russia and Iran, the US may diverge from an offshore-balancing grand strategy to liberal hegemony. In class, we discussed how the United States’ recent foreign policy has strayed away from full international involvement, and instead is building strong, but not stronger than the US, regional partners. This can be seen with India in the South Asia. However, with increased cooperation between the US’s two adversaries, Russia and Iran, the United States may return to a hegemonic status. Additionally, as discussed in class, Russia and Iran are both considered to be one of the few countries that pose a threat to the United States. Due to this fact, The United States is highly motivated to counter this partnership or combat it. This may be seen by greater cooperation between the US and Saudi Arabia or other countries that oppose Russia/Iran, increased navy presence in proximity to the country, etc.