The article covers the annual Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Kazakhstan, where leaders from China, Russia, and several global southern nations aim to promote a “multilateral” world order to counter U.S. dominance. China and Russia are navigating a strategic partnership while vying for influence in Central Asia, especially as China’s Belt and Road Initiative has invested significantly in the region. Central Asian nations, seeing the Ukraine war as a sign to diversify their ties, are increasingly aligning with China. However, tensions within the SCO persist, as India and Pakistan remain divided and India seeks to balance relations with both Russia and China. Additionally, Putin’s recent visit to North Korea has raised concerns about a “cold war-style” bloc, potentially complicating China’s diplomatic strategies in East Asia. Despite its size, the SCO faces internal conflicts and geopolitical complexities that may limit its cohesion and effectiveness.
The SCO summit reflects a strategic realignment as China and Russia push for a multipolar world order that reduces U.S. influence. Central Asia, long within Russia’s sphere, increasingly gravitates toward China, especially after the Ukraine war underscored the need for economic diversification. This shift holds substantial implications: China’s investments strengthen its foothold, potentially decreasing Russia’s historical dominance in the region. However, the SCO’s internal divisions—India and Pakistan’s rivalries and India’s balancing act between Moscow and Beijing—highlight the alliance’s fragility. As China and Russia deepen ties with unpredictable allies like North Korea, regional dynamics may evolve unpredictably, complicating diplomatic relations in Asia.
China may intensify its Belt and Road investments in Central Asia, solidifying economic ties and countering Russia’s regional influence while carefully managing perceptions of a “cold war-style” bloc due to Russia’s North Korea ties. Under pressure from sanctions, Russia is likely to deepen cooperation with both China and Central Asian states to maintain relevance and economic flow but risks ceding regional influence to Beijing. Central Asian countries may continue leveraging China’s investment to diversify away from Russian dependency, even as they maintain practical ties with Moscow. India may seek to balance its SCO engagement by strengthening its relationship with Russia while cautiously managing tensions with China and Pakistan.
The SCO summit underscores the collective goods problem in international alliances, where member states benefit from regional stability but face conflicting interests, especially as China and Russia seek influence in Central Asia. China’s push for a “multilateral” order challenges the U.S.-led global hierarchy, aligning with the dominance approach as an alternative power structure. However, the SCO’s internal rivalries, like those between India and Pakistan, reveal the limits of reciprocity and identity-based cooperation within the group. The summit also highlights pragmatist diplomacy, as Central Asian countries prioritize diverse ties with China and Russia, balancing national interests amid complex geopolitical pressures.