Following the current victory of former president Donald Trump in 2024, this article has highlighted the new curb that could be up and coming with Iran’s economy and new oil exports that are to come. Prior, in the election of 2016, former president Donald Trump criticized the 2015 nuclear deal and vowed to withdraw from it, this caused fear of renewed sanctions and severely impacted Iran’s key oil revenue. Sources stated in the Reuters article that Iran is preparing for tougher U.S policies under Trump who attacked the nuclear plant in past years. With Trump’s election there is widespread concern that there is a possibility that he can reinstate these sanctions and potential pressures. Some of these measures can include preventing Iran from accessing global markets for its oil. This uncertainty surrounding policy in the U.S under Trump has sent concerns about distrusting supply and fluctuation prices of oil. Iran has reportedly begun to prepare for a variety of scenarios that are to come forth to circumvent the U.S. , Iran’s oil industry remains recently to this point depending on the implications that might come under Trump’s new policies.
This article is crucial to the future as it highlights economic implications of renewed U.S. sanctions on Iran, particularly targeting oil exports. Iran is one of the world’s largest oil producers and any disruption to its oil exports would significantly impact global supply. The possible implications of sanctions being placed by the U.S could reduce Iran’s ability to sell oil, potentially causing oil prices to spike. This could have a major effect both on developed and developing countries on stable oil prices. By Iran’s preparation of changing sanctions, including seeking alternative buyers like CHina and Russia Iran will have a shift in global trade partners, challenge the U.s influence and create new alliances outside the western birds. Overall long term the collapse of the 2015 nuclear plan already caused enough stress but the pressure of sanctions could lead to greater nuclear use risks as IRan might resume nuclear activities in response to the U.S pressure.
Connecting this to discussion in class we talk about offensive and defensive realism. For example in the U.S-Iran conflict , offensive realism is used by the U.S, as imposition of sanctions are being used not just to limit Iran’s nuclear ambitions, but reduce Iran’s overall power and regional influence, seeing that Iran is rising slowly. On the other hand we have a defensive realism approach being portrayed by Iran, as the nuclear development and support for regional delegation can be seen as defensive actions to safeguard its sovereignty and deterring U.S intervention rather than pursuing territorial expansion.