{"id":1132,"date":"2017-11-17T01:24:21","date_gmt":"2017-11-17T01:24:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/subsaharanafricablog\/?p=1132"},"modified":"2017-11-17T01:24:21","modified_gmt":"2017-11-17T01:24:21","slug":"zimbabwe-army-chiefs-trip-to-china-last-week-raises-questions-on-coup","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/subsaharanafricablog\/2017\/11\/17\/zimbabwe-army-chiefs-trip-to-china-last-week-raises-questions-on-coup\/","title":{"rendered":"Zimbabwe army chief&#8217;s trip to China last week raises questions on coup"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>When one of the architects of <a class=\"u-underline\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2017\/nov\/15\/harare-wakes-up-to-new-era-zimbabwe-coup-robert-mugabe\">Zimbabwe\u2019s low-key coup<\/a> landed in Beijing last week he was met by two of the most senior members of the world\u2019s largest military force.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cChina and Zimbabwe are all-weather friends,\u201d the head of the Zimbabwe Defence Forces (ZDF), Gen Constantino Guveya Chiwenga, was told by Li Zuocheng, chief of the joint staff of China\u2019s People\u2019s Liberation Army (PLA), according to <a class=\"u-underline\" href=\"http:\/\/eng.chinamil.com.cn\/view\/2017-08\/28\/content_7733909.htm\">a defence ministry report<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Zimbabwe, <a class=\"u-underline\" href=\"http:\/\/eng.mod.gov.cn\/news\/2017-11\/09\/content_4796977.htm\">Chiwenga told his host,<\/a> was \u201cwilling to deepen exchanges and cooperation in all fields with China to promote the rapid development of bilateral state and military relations between the two countries\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>Two days later, the ZDF chief sat down with China\u2019s defence minister, Gen Chang Wanquan, <a class=\"u-underline\" href=\"http:\/\/eng.mod.gov.cn\/news\/2017-11\/13\/content_4797251.htm\">thanking him<\/a> for Beijing\u2019s \u201clong-time selfless help\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>Little else is known about why Chiwenga, who is seen as an ally of <a class=\"u-underline\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2017\/nov\/16\/tactical-error-leaves-weakened-mugabe-facing-end-of-an-era\">Zimbabwe\u2019s ousted vice-president, Emmerson Mnangagwa<\/a>, made the call on the Chinese capital, just days before the army chief would declare that the military was ready to <a class=\"u-underline\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2017\/nov\/13\/zimbabwe-army-chief-warns-military-could-step-in-over-party-purge\">\u201cstep in\u201d over Robert Mugabe\u2019s purge of the ruling party<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"u-underline\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/china\">China<\/a>, which has backed Mugabe since the anti-colonial struggle of the 1970s, is also now Harare\u2019s largest foreign investor, pumping huge sums into the Zimbabwean economy in exchange for natural resources and agricultural products such as diamonds and tobacco.<\/p>\n<p>Recent years have seen China or state-linked Chinese firms bankroll developments including <a class=\"u-underline\" href=\"https:\/\/mg.co.za\/article\/2013-02-08-construction-of-chinese-built-zim-defence-college-under-scrutiny\">the $100m Zimbabwe National Defence College<\/a> and <a class=\"u-underline\" href=\"http:\/\/nehandaradio.com\/2013\/12\/18\/chinese-mall-opens-despite-warnings-from-environmentalists\/\">the $200m Longcheng Plaza shopping centre<\/a> in Harare. Last year <a class=\"u-underline\" href=\"http:\/\/news.xinhuanet.com\/english\/2016-09\/21\/c_135700844.htm\">China agreed<\/a> to help fund a new 650-seat parliament building in the north of Zimbabwe\u2019s capital.<\/p>\n<p>On Wednesday, as the 93-year-old strongman president was placed under house arrest in Harare, the foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang claimed Chiwenga\u2019s visit had been part of \u201ca normal military exchange\u201d. Geng was cagey, however, about what exactly Chiwenga had been doing in China: \u201cAs for the details of his visit, I have little to share.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Geng also tried to scotch speculation that after his sacking last week, Mnangagwahad fled to China, where he is reported to have received military training in the past.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"element element-rich-link element--thumbnail element-rich-link--upgraded\">\n<div class=\"rich-link tone-analysis--item \"><\/div>\n<\/aside>\n<p>\u201cI can assure you that he is not in China,\u201d Geng said.<\/p>\n<p>Those ambiguous comments will do little to dispel suspicions that Chiwenga may have travelled to Beijing to warn China\u2019s leadership of the impending move against Mugabe, or perhaps even to seek its blessing or help. Li Zuocheng, a rising star in China\u2019s 2.3 million-member military, <a class=\"u-underline\" href=\"http:\/\/www.scmp.com\/news\/china\/diplomacy-defence\/article\/2106947\/war-hero-tipped-xi-jinpings-choice-key-role-worlds\">reportedly enjoys close ties to the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Shen Xiaolei, an Africa expert from the state-run Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, rejected the suggestion China had been in on the coup. \u201cChiwenga\u2019s visit was arranged long ago, so it\u2019s impossible he visited China over this matter,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>Shen said Beijing would respect Zimbabwe\u2019s \u201cown attitudes\u201d towards the crisis. Mugabe\u2019s downfall was \u201ca pity\u201d since \u201che was the leader and hero of national independence and such a situation has come late in his life \u2026 However, the Chinese government has [a policy of] non-interference in Africa\u2019s internal affairs.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Cobus van Staden, a South African academic and journalist who specialises in China-Africa relations, said it was impossible to know whether China had played an active role in the move against Mugabe.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWho knows what really is happening \u2013 but it certainly is eye-popping \u2026 the timing [of the visit] does raise questions,\u201d said Van Staden, from Witwatersrand University in Johannesburg.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s a more bunch of loose clues than a coherent narrative at the moment but it certainly does point to Chinese involvement in some kind of way.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Ian Taylor, the author of China\u2019s New Role in Africa, said Beijing would not be losing too much sleep over events in Zimbabwe since Mugabe\u2019s apparent demise did not yet appear to represent \u201ca change in system\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe securocrats who have seized power have had close and profitable relations with Beijing and would wish this to continue,\u201d said Taylor, an international relations professor at St Andrews University.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOnly if the situation spun out of control and a genuinely new and different set of people came to power would China\u2019s position be conceivably in jeopardy.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>There were hints from Chinese media and analysts on Thursday that Beijing was indeed comfortable with the end of Mugabe\u2019s 37-year reign.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWednesday\u2019s incident will not affect the general trend of bilateral ties,\u201d the party-run Global Times, which sometimes reflects official views, argued in <a class=\"u-underline\" href=\"http:\/\/www.globaltimes.cn\/content\/1075448.shtml\">an editorial<\/a>. \u201cThe long-term friendship between China and Zimbabwe will transcend the internal disturbances in Zimbabwe.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The Global Times predicted that the west \u2013 given its hostility to Mugabe \u2013 was \u201clikely to turn a blind eye to this crisis\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>Taylor suggested Beijing was likely to do the same: \u201cThe Chinese are very pragmatic.\u201d<span style=\"font-size: 1rem\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Van Staden said that as well as the economic benefits of its relationship with Mugabe, Beijing also felt a historical loyalty to a man with whom it had worked since the Mao era when he helped China gain influence in Africa after the Sino-Soviet split.<\/p>\n<p>China also \u201cwasn\u2019t blind to the fact that supporting Mugabe \u2013 even though it drew criticism from the west \u2013 carried a certain amount of cachet in Africa\u201d where some still revered him for his fight against colonialism.<\/p>\n<p>Now, however, Beijing\u2019s calculations appeared to have changed.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt seems to me that they just realised \u2013 like everyone has realised \u2013 that the situation in Zimbabwe was increasingly untenable, that a direct succession from Robert Mugabe to <a class=\"u-underline\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2017\/nov\/15\/grace-mugabe-the-rags-to-riches-rise-and-fall-of-gucci-grace\">Grace Mugabe<\/a> was a recipe for disaster,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cChina doesn\u2019t have necessarily an ideological attachment to democratic government or to non-democratic government. The only thing China is generally really, really focused on is stability.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cMy feeling is that perhaps they saw that this was going to start becoming a very disrupted country if there isn\u2019t some form of changeover.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>When one of the architects of Zimbabwe\u2019s low-key coup landed in Beijing last week he was met by two of the most senior members of the world\u2019s largest military force. \u201cChina and Zimbabwe are all-weather friends,\u201d the head of the Zimbabwe Defence Forces (ZDF), Gen Constantino Guveya Chiwenga, was told by Li Zuocheng, chief of the joint staff of China\u2019s&#8230; <a href=\"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/subsaharanafricablog\/2017\/11\/17\/zimbabwe-army-chiefs-trip-to-china-last-week-raises-questions-on-coup\/\">Read more &raquo;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":48,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1132","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/subsaharanafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1132","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/subsaharanafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/subsaharanafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/subsaharanafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/48"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/subsaharanafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1132"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/subsaharanafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1132\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1133,"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/subsaharanafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1132\/revisions\/1133"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/subsaharanafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1132"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/subsaharanafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1132"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/subsaharanafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1132"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}