{"id":2978,"date":"2019-02-07T18:15:03","date_gmt":"2019-02-07T18:15:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/subsaharanafricablog\/?p=2978"},"modified":"2019-02-07T18:15:03","modified_gmt":"2019-02-07T18:15:03","slug":"felix-tshisekedis-presidency-of-congo-begins-inauspiciously","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/subsaharanafricablog\/2019\/02\/07\/felix-tshisekedis-presidency-of-congo-begins-inauspiciously\/","title":{"rendered":"F\u00e9lix Tshisekedi’s presidency of Congo begins inauspiciously"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Against all\u00a0the odds, and the laws of arithmetic, F\u00e9lix Tshisekedi was due to become the Democratic Republic of Congo\u2019s fifth president as\u00a0The Economist<\/em>\u00a0went to press. A few weeks ago he was trailing in the polls. Experts predicted that the election in December would either be won by Martin Fayulu, a popular opposition candidate, or rigged in favour of the ruling-party candidate, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Somehow, Mr Tshisekedi \u201cwon\u201d, although data leaked from the electoral commission and a count by 40,000 Catholic volunteers suggest that in fact Mr Fayulu won 60% of the vote. Many suspect a secret deal between the new president and the old one, Joseph Kabila, whose business interests Mr Fayulu had vowed to investigate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mr Fayulu filed a petition before the constitutional court, stacked with Mr Kabila\u2019s appointees. He expected it to fail, and it did. He hoped that street protests would keep up the pressure. \u201cThe Congolese people will not accept the result, there may be an uprising,\u201d he said. But few turned out at what was supposed to be his first big public appearance since the court ruling, perhaps because so many armed police did. A small crowd waved photographs of Mr Fayulu. Two hours later the police were lounging in plastic chairs at a nearby restaurant and most people had gone home. Mr Fayulu decided not to show up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mr Tshisekedi\u2019s victory marks the first time an African opposition candidate has been rigged into power, says Nic Cheeseman, an expert on African elections. (Mr Shadary, the ruling party\u2019s candidate, won so few votes that it would have been exceptionally hard to pretend that he won.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The new president represents the country\u2019s oldest opposition party. His father, \u00c9tienne, challenged corrupt, despotic regimes for decades until his death two years ago. Many hope that his son has inherited his principles. They yearn for a leader who will halt the looting that has lasted longer than most Congolese can remember, under two President Kabilas (father and son) and the kleptocrat Mobutu Sese Seko. With all its minerals, Congo should be rich, but annual income per head is a pathetic $400, 42% less than it was in 1990.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mr Tshisekedi has promised, absurdly, to raise incomes tenfold. He has also vowed to restore stability in the east, where dozens of warring militias have brought misery. To do so, he will need to bring the army to heel and take on the elite that plundered Congo on Mr Kabila\u2019s watch. Optimists hope that he will ditch whatever deal he had with his predecessor and strike out on his own. For a precedent, they point to Jo\u00e3o Louren\u00e7o, who shoved aside his predecessor\u2019s family and allies after taking power in neighbouring Angola in 2017. Mr Tshisekedi\u2019s virtues do not include loyalty; he withdrew from a pact to endorse Mr Fayulu last year only a day after signing up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet Mr Tshisekedi is weak. Few Congolese think him legitimate: leaked electoral commission data suggest that he won less than a fifth of the vote. Because Mr Kabila\u2019s coalition won a big majority in the national assembly (possibly by cheating), Mr Tshisekedi does not have the power to appoint his own cabinet. Nor can he count on the goodwill of Congo\u2019s most important neighbours. Although the leaders of South Africa and Kenya raced to congratulate him, Paul Kagame, Rwanda\u2019s president, has hung back. He and Mr Louren\u00e7o were said to be largely responsible for an African Union statement questioning the election and urging a delay in his inauguration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Neither Mr Kagame nor Mr Louren\u00e7o is likely to help Congo\u2019s new president as long as Mr Kabila\u2014whom they detest\u2014retains influence over him. Yet their acquiescence is vital. Rwanda has invaded Congo in the past. Angola sent troops to save both Mr Kabila (from his own mutinous troops in 2006) and his father (from Rwandan invaders in 1998). Probably neither Kabila would have survived as long without Angolan assistance. But a maritime border dispute and an influx of refugees into Angola from a rebellion in Congo\u2019s Kasai region have soured relations. Rwanda or Angola could easily destabilise Congo again if they wished to. Mr Tshisekedi, an inexperienced and unpopular leader in hock to a crooked and dysfunctional old regime, may not be able to stop them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source: http:\/\/www.economist.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Against all\u00a0the odds, and the laws of arithmetic, F\u00e9lix Tshisekedi was due to become the Democratic Republic of Congo\u2019s fifth president as\u00a0The Economist\u00a0went to press. A few weeks ago he was trailing in the polls. Experts predicted that the election in December would either be won by Martin Fayulu, a popular opposition candidate, or rigged in favour of the ruling-party… Read more »<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":112,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2978","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/subsaharanafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2978","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/subsaharanafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/subsaharanafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/subsaharanafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/112"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/subsaharanafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2978"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/subsaharanafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2978\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2979,"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/subsaharanafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2978\/revisions\/2979"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/subsaharanafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2978"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/subsaharanafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2978"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baileyonlineclassroom.com\/subsaharanafricablog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2978"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}