Link to article: https://www.reuters.com/world/canada-asks-citizens-avoid-non-essential-travel-ukraine-due-russian-aggression-2022-01-16/
Due to the Russian government stationing over 100,000 troops near the Ukrainian border, Canada is now advising its citizens not to travel to Ukraine unless for essential reasons. On Friday, the United States said that it is afraid Russia may be preparing a pretext to invade if they cannot meet their needs through diplomatic means. Since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, Canada has taken a hardline approach with them given that Canada has a decently-sized population of Ukrainian descent. The Canadian Foreign Minister will visit Kyiv next week to help deter Russian aggression and show support for Ukrainian sovereignty. Both the US and Canada are calling for Russian de-escalation. The NATO Secretary General described Russia as “the aggressor” in a CBC interview published Sunday, but stated that they are willing to sit down and listen to their concerns if they de-escalate. Russia doesn’t admit planning to attack Ukraine but stated that unspecified military action could take place if their demands are not met, one of which being NATO promising to never admit Kyiv. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau emphasized that any military entrance into Ukraine would have major consequences, one of which being coordinated sanctions.
This situation holds significance since it demonstrates that Canada will not be idle while Russia aggresses Ukraine. As a founding member of NATO and given their sizable Ukrainian population, it can also be assumed that Canada would be willing to go pretty far with their actions to defend Ukraine. Russia obviously is still afraid of foreign intervention, made clear by their demand that Kyiv never be allowed into NATO. However, given Russia’s history of constant invasion, it is unlikely that they will back off now given how much progress they have already made in and around Ukraine. With 100,000 troops stationed around the border, it’s probable that they will invade soon to gain access to Moldova, which has a significant ethnic Russian population in the east that would allow them to solidify a large buffer and justify their actions. With Romania being a member of NATO along with Canada’s stated opposition to Russia’s aggression, Russia will still need to tread lightly if they follow that route.
This situation involves multiple states within the category of International Security because Russia is threatening Ukraine’s security which could threaten the security of many Canadian citizens who travel to Ukraine who also wield political influence in Canada. Russia has many geopolitical considerations driving their decisions, such as how the extra territory could protect their population centers from invasion, how it could help their military strategies to have further reach west, etc. In relation to Organic Theory, Russia is simply trying to gain more territory to support their population and economy, since otherwise they would be shrinking and likely to lose power.