Summary: Honduran president Xiomara Castro announced that Honduras will expand foreign engagements with China. Honduras is one of the last 14 remaining states to recognize Taiwan as an independent state, having lost 8 other countries that recognized them since 2016. China disallows its trade partners from recognizing Taiwan and has lent Honduras $300m in 2021 to build a hydroelectric dam and is further negotiating with Honduras currently for another major project, which countries allied with Taiwan such as Micronesia say is China buying loyalty from the last Taiwanese holdouts. While Castro hasn’t been clear if Honduras would maintain relations with Taiwan (they have since cut them), this move entirely undermines president Ing-Wen of Taiwan’s major visit to Central America in April.
Analysis: It is fairly clear that Micronesia is correct and that China is trying to potentially use its economic status and potentially debt entrapment to reduce the amount of allies Taiwan has. This move is a significant blow to Taiwan, as Honduras was a firm supporter of Taiwan as early as 2020, with the predecessor of Castro even visiting the country and signing a major economic trade agreement. However, the economic prosperity and opportunity proposed by Taiwan is very limited compared to China, which I believe seeks to limit recognition of Taiwan so little that an invasion of Taiwan, an area that many of these countries are now recognizing as China, does not have the same response as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Central America in general was the last major bastion of support for Taiwan outside of the Pacific, with now only Guatemala and Belize recognizing Taiwan and El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua withdrawing recognition over the last few years. Ing-Wen will likely have to renegotiate trade deals with the last two remaining countries in the region to keep their recognition of Taiwan. However, I believe it’s nearly inevitable that China will force their hands, considering how fast Honduras switched on the subject in two years.
Connection to Class: The legality of China invading Taiwan is dubious under the UN charter, even if Taiwan were to lose most of its recognition. China seeks to argue that under UN Article 2(4), Taiwan is not a state, and if it were to deprive it of its major recognizers, such as Honduras, that fact would be even more so indisputable. Taiwan cites the UNGA Resolution 2625 as defense, which states a country cannot deprive people of self-determination and independence. However, Taiwan could not argue this to the ICJ as it does not have UN membership, therefore it may be legal for China to conduct an invasion of Taiwan.
