Link: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/clock-ticks-cuba-trump-cuts-off-venezuelan-oil-2026-01-13/
Cubans are getting ready for the worst seeing as President Trump has effectively put the island under siege via the oil restrictions now in place. The last shipment was made to Cuba by the PDVSA via a ghost tanker that delivered 600,000 barrels of crude oil. Cuba relies heavily on Venezuela for their oil needs, before the mid December blockade they received 26,000 bpd covering up to 1/3 of Cuba’s daily energy needs. Trump is using Venezuela as a bargaining chip with Cuba forcing the Communist leadership to make deals with the US. This negatively affects the Cuban people who are already short on medicine, food, and other essentials. In response the Cuban president has vowed to “defend the homeland to the last drop of blood”. The large part of Cuba’s allies have done nothing spare Mexico and Russia in minor ways. Mexico is trying their best to supply Cuba but the import is doing very little for the Cubans.
The article does a great job of portraying the reality of Cuba’s situation. From a US national intrest point of view this is great, the Cuban’s are kind of at the will of the Americans regardless of what they say. Saying you will defend the island to the last drop of blood, albeit honorable, is ignorant. Trump will not need to land troops or even launch air strikes to bring Cuba to its knees, all he needs to do is wait them out. Just like in a medieval siege the US will not need to fight, just we will need to make sure that the Cuban’s daily lives become that much harder/different. Is this moral, most likely not, but it does benefit America in a huge way. This all also falls in line with the thought that Trump is trying to secure the Western Hemisphere and get out of the game globally.
I think that the US will continue to bar Cuba, I could also see the US take political/economic action against the Mexicans to ensure that the oil cut off will actually do something and not be undermined. I can’t see Cuba continue in the state that they are in right now, if they find a way to live without the oil maybe the could last it out. However in my opinion I am seeing the Cubans come to a deal with the US that will hinder their ability to support communism, but more importantly, their ability to support and be an ally of China.
I see the concepts of Realism in this topic. The US is acting in their best interest and is taking out one of the nations that does not get in line with their doctrine. These actions are clear example of prioritizing national interests, national security, power, influence, and leverage rather than morality or prioritizing the well being of all humans.