Viruses spanning many countries and killing people is not a new phenomena. Weather it was the Ebola outbreak in Africa in 2014 or even the flare ups of the virus in 2016- the event of world virus outbreaks is not new. Experts are now saying it has even surpassed the danger of the Sars outbreak that began in China in 2003 that infected 8,100. The Corona virus has now infected 10,000 which emerged in China during this last December. However, the death toll stands at 213, a far cry from the 774 killed by Sars.
With 98 cases of the virus outside of the United States, the World Health Organization has declared the virus a global health emergency. While I think that it is possible that with the 24/7 news cycle and its search for stories that the outbreak could be overblown by the media, the economic impact is no joke. The Sars virus was estimated to have cost the global economy over 30 billion dollars. With 13 countries now infected governments in countries are scaling back certain functions to mitigate the infection risk within their countries. This has included global airlines suspending or scaling back flights to China and many countries evacuating their citizens from Wuhan.
On a positive note the virus has led to international cooperation. China’s prestigious Tsinghua has set up an experienced team to head vaccine research. Shanghai East Hospital of Tongji University and Stermirna Therapeutics Co. have launched a program to develop an mRNA vaccine targeting the coronavirus. This program is working with the Baylor College of Medicine, the University of Texas Medical Branch, and the New York Blood Center on engineering the vaccines. This process is thought to take about three months.
Overall, yes the virus is a concern. But if China is being honest in its reports of the outbreak and its actions to contain it it is unlikely to become a global catastrophe. This is on top of the fact that the mortality rate is nowhere near as bad as previous virus outbreaks. In the meantime, the virus is likely to have a significant economic ramifications but is unlikely to lead to a decline in global public health.