Link to Article: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckgdr1vlz7ko
President Donald Trump announced that he will visit Beijing in April after a phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping, during which he also invited Xi for a state visit to the U.S. next year. The two leaders had met almost a month earlier in Busan, South Korea, where they agreed to a tariff truce. Following that meeting, the U.S. cut a 20% tariff in half to curb fentanyl flows, though overall tariffs on Chinese goods still average just under 50%. China and the U.S. each pulled back additional economic threats, with Washington pausing its plan for 100% additional tariffs and Beijing delaying new rare earth export controls. The leaders also discussed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Taiwan. Xi told Trump that Taiwan’s “return to China” is essential to China’s vision for the post-war international order. Tensions remain high, as Japan has recently warned that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could prompt a Japanese military response. Trump did not mention Taiwan in his public comments.
This development is important as it shows some semblance of stability between two world powers. Lower tariff agreements, planning diplomatic visits, and strengthened communication all suggest that China-U.S. ties are strengthening. I found it interesting that Taiwan was a focus point of this conference, with Xi Jinping holding his claim over the nation. That said, I don’t see the U.S. getting involved on either side of the Taiwanese matter. Japan’s recent claims have raised regional tension as they suggest cooperation with Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion.
The U.S. will likely continue to pursue trade negotiations with China, shrinking tariffs may be a result. Trump’s visit to Beijing, though still several months out, will play a key role in these negotiations. It’s unclear whether China will ultimately pursue an invasion of Taiwan. If invaded, the U.S. is likely to remain neutral in an effort to steady relations with China. Japan, on the other hand, may provide support to Taiwan, ultimately aiming to strengthen their own defenses against China.
This event can be seen in relation to both the realist and liberal theories of IR. The U.S. is acting on its own national interest, levying the benefits and costs of its ongoing China tariffs. China, similarly, protects its national security through its assertion over Taiwan, which gives it closer access to Japan. From a liberal theory perspective, the trade negotiations between the U.S. and China can be seen as a means for peace. Trade between the two creates interdependence, or a reliance on one another, therefore making conflicts more costly. Together, these theories help explain why the U.S. and China are in this turbulent position, and how these negotiations may play out in the future.