Link to Article: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/12/14/thailand-launches-new-offensive-as-cambodia-halts-all-border-crossings
Thailand’s military has launched a new offensive against Cambodia, claiming it is acting to reclaim sovereign territory along their disputed border, defying recent international mediation efforts. The move comes amid ongoing violent clashes between the two Southeast Asian neighbours over their long-running colonial-era border demarcation dispute. Thailand’s navy said its forces struck in Trat province, and officials reported operations continuing along other parts of the frontier, including drone and ground engagements. The offensive occurs despite assertions by former U.S. President Donald Trump that both sides had agreed to a ceasefire, which Thai authorities have rejected, insisting they will continue military action until Cambodia changes its stance. Meanwhile, Cambodia announced it was halting all border crossings with Thailand in response to the fighting, further straining bilateral ties. The conflict has already displaced around half a million people and resulted in casualties on both sides.
The border dispute between Cambodia and Thailand matters as escalated fighting and tensions could spill over into conflict with larger states. While still a relatively minor event, the fighting poses a humanitarian threat as thousands of people are displaced. This displacement, along with Cambodia’s newly implemented border restrictions, could also have impacts to regional trade and supply chains. Both Thailand and Cambodia are members of ASEAN, an IGO across 11 Southeastern Asian states. That said, the ongoing conflict between the two raises questions of ASEAN’s legitimacy and ability to mediate disputes.
As with many border conflicts between states, I forsee this dispute lasting a while, especially without direct intervention or mediation from more powerful actors. Thailand has already publicly declared they will continue offensive measures until Cambodia agrees to their terms. They justify it as protection of their sovereign territory. Cambodia does not have very much leverage in this situation, they will pursue defensive measures but are unlikely to fully comply with Thailand’s border claims. For this fighting to effectively end, I could see a third party moderator getting involved. This could be a stronger push from ASEAN or the U.S. though Thailand previously dismissed Trump’s ceasefire.
The Thailand-Cambodia border clash can be seen from the realist perspective as each state is prioritizing sovereignty, security, and territorial control. Both states are primarily utilizing military force, the strongest power according to realism, with few diplomatic arrangements or collaboration taking place. Additionally, Thailand’s offensive deployment of troops along the disputed border exemplifies a security dilemma. Thailand’s aggression, which is ultimately done as a defensive measure to bolster security, caused Cambodia to respond with a similar military engagement. This back and forth threat will continue to escalate until some form of cooperation is achieved. Together, both nations’ behaviors show the realist idea that power and security rather than cooperation drives state’s actions.