Link to Article: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/8/china-finds-risks-opportunities-as-trump-pushes-for-spheres-of-influence
China is re-evaluating its global approach in light of the U.S. President Donald Trump’s renewed focus on spheres of influence, especially in the Western Hemisphere. Trump has revived the 19th-century Monroe Doctrine in the U.S. national security strategy to assert that the Americas should be free from “hostile” foreign powers like China, a stance underscored by the recent U.S. military capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro — an act Beijing condemned as a violation of international law that jeopardises its long-standing economic and diplomatic ties with Venezuela. Analysts say this U.S. posture poses risks to China’s investments and partnerships in Latin America, but also creates a rhetorical opening for Beijing to frame its own regional ambitions. Some Chinese commentators on social media have drawn parallels between U.S. actions in Venezuela and how China might approach Taiwan under similar “sphere of influence” logic. Trump’s strategy may make it easier for Beijing to argue for future justification of such moves.
The United States’ actions in Venezuela are incredibly important not only because of their effect on current supply chains, with China being a large investor in Venezuela, but also because of the precedent set. It serves as a reminder to other nations of the Monroe Doctrine set decades prior. Additionally, with the U.S. strengthening its control over its region, this opens up the opportunity for China to do the same through Taiwan. While a full-scale invasion of Taiwan is still unlikely, Chinese officials could justify it as just that: a measure taken to reaffirm stability in the region.
There are a number of ways the U.S. could go in handling Venezuela post-Maduro. They could provide aid and resources to help implement a more stable government, withdraw from the nation completely, or somewhere in between; regardless of what the U.S. does next, China will continue to see this as a direct attack on its foreign investments. Additionally, other South American states may aim to gain control over their respective drug cartels to prevent U.S. intervention. I suspect Taiwan, while an ally of the U.S, will not show support for Trump’s operation in Venezuela as they will see it as an attack on a sovereign nation.
While primarily an intra-state conflict between the U.S. and Venezuela, this event also poses security concerns to China. From a global perspective, China may view the United States’ actions as a threat to international norms. The U.S. is sending a message that it is willing to prioritize its sphere of influence over another state’s sovereignty. On a regional level, the U.S. is interfering directly with a key player in China’s supply chain. Just weeks prior to his capture, Maduro had met with Xi to further economic ties between the two. At a state level, Chinese officials have already publicly denounced the operation, claiming it interferes directly with national interests. These factors will play a large role in determining China’s plan of action, if any.