https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-japan-asia-tokyo-china-88fa4b1c481a406ee0355fe0701c6901
Japan and the European Union agreed to step up their sanctions against Russia as leaders from the two sides expressed concerns about the war’s impact in the Indo-Pacific, where they seek to strengthen their partnership and increase engagement amid China’s growing assertiveness. Japan supports tough sanctions against Russia and ample support for Ukraine because the war shakes the foundation of the world order in Europe and Asia. Security in Europe and in the Indo-Pacific have become inseparable. The Indo-Pacific is a thriving region. It is also a place of tension; with the situation in the East and South China seas and the constant threat of North Korea.
Japan quickly joined other countries in imposing sanctions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February, 24. The country has frozen the assets of Russian leaders, including President Vladimir Putin, and government officials and billionaires close to him as well as key banks. It has also restricted trade and announced a decision to phase out imports of Russian coal and crude oil. But in Tokyo, there is growing fear that the war may embolden China to take more assertive military actions in the East and South China seas, where China’s vast territorial claims have overlapped with those of its smaller neighbors. Japan is in a territorial dispute with China over islands in the East China Sea, and sees neighbor Taiwan’s security as closely linked to its own. China has spent years investing in capabilities that can bring lethal force rapidly across the Taiwan Strait via major naval and airborne elements, accompanied by waves of missile strikes. Those same capabilities threaten Japan, and now the problem becomes more prominent than ever.
Ukraine has been able to stay in the fight not just because of the tenacity of its people, but because of external assistance. While Japan would expect any attack to be met by U.S. support, if the U.S. is also involved in a conflict, Japan could face numerous challenges. Although Japan has domestic suppliers for munitions – because of a high sense of militarism – it is highly dependent on foreign military sales. Because the U.S. would also be dependent on similar U.S. suppliers during a conflict, U.S. production capacity to supply Japan could be constrained. There aren’t really bilateral prioritization agreements to ensure the requisite defense materiel. Even if other U.S. allies want to assist, geography and the lack of access to nearby bases could challenge quick and sustained support. Japan has made significant efforts to get closer strategically with key U.S. allies, but Japan should consider whether it could further enmesh itself with these states. Possible options include joint operational planning, reciprocal basing and prepositioning equipment in Japan.