The article talks about the deployment of Russia’s new Oreshnik missile to Belarus. This missile is capable of carrying a nuclear payload and is reported by Moscow to have warheads that can travel at speeds up to Mach 10 and as a result has been advertised as un-interceptable. The non-nuclear variant missile was tested against a Ukrainian factory in 2024. Russia updated its nuclear doctrine in 2024 as well as signing a security pact with Belarus. This nuclear doctrine has a much lower threshold designed to keep the West out of the war with Ukraine.
It seems that Russia is doing everything in its power to isolate Ukraine from Western countries to prevent Ukraine from receiving any more aid or even military reinforcements. By lowering the threshold for a nuclear response, Russia can prevent these Western countries from joining the fight. The new “Oreshnik” missiles have enough range to hit Europe which further discourages any country from helping as countries have already been pulling out support. The 2024 “Treaty on Security Guarantees” with Russia and Belarus have closely aligned the two countries which will prove mutually beneficial as Russia needs to move further west and Belarus needs security.
The two major players are the Belarusian government and Russia’s government. The Belarusian government will likely do nothing with the missiles as they don’t even have the ability to use them but it is slowly dampening its Russian relations by making trade deals with the US. The Russian government will most likely push for Belarus to keep western relations to a minimum because having Belarus will help in the War with Ukraine
This article connects to peace in conflict within global politics. Russia’s use of regionalized alliances has allowed them to surround Ukraine and keep a stronger grip on Eastern Europe. This alliance has allowed Russia to mobilize its new missiles further into Europe and could be used as leverage in future conflicts.