At the heart of recent conflicts in the Middle East has been the struggle between two major powers for influence over the region. These countries, Saudi Arabia and Iran, have had tense relations for years, having fought against each other vicariously by backing different sides in various regional conflicts. A substantial part of the rivalry lies in religion, having to do with the two factions of Islam. Saudis are mostly Sunni and Iranians are mostly Shia. This explains the Iranians alignment with Iraq and Saudi’s close ties with Egypt. Saudi Arabia has also been seen as a leading proponent of westernization in the middle east. These underlying tensions have now lead to a conflict in Lebanon which could result in significant disruption and a more direct struggle between Iran and Saudi Arabia: the resignation of Lebanon’s Prime Minister, Saad Hariri.
Hariri resigned on November 4th under unusual circumstances. His televised speech, though, was made under unusual circumstances. The resignation didn’t conflate with Hariri’s prior rhetoric and ambitions. It is now suspected that Saudi Arabia influenced him to resign. Hariri recently expressed that he had felt his life would be endangered if he didn’t comply with demands to resign, implying Saudi threats and intimidation tactics. The exact reason behind the behavior of the Saudis is still unknown, however it most likely has to do with Hariri’s cooperation with Iran and his decision not to interfere with Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant group backed by Iran. Hezbollah had been involved in many terror attacks against Saudi Arabia and the primary Saudi may be to see it destroyed. Saudi interference in Lebanon though would most likely also draw Iran into the country. This could have potentially devastating consequences for Lebanon on top of the power vacuum which has already been created.