Recently, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened to close two United States military bases in the country. This may appear as a media game being played by an increasingly authoritarian and bombastic leader; however, this actually may be a part of a much larger geopolitical strategy for Turkey. Turkey has long been an ally of the U.S. and the west at large. It is a member of NATO, and played a pivotal role supporting the U.S. in the Cold War, allowing nuclear-armed missiles to be placed in their borders as a threat to the USSR. It may appear reasonable at first glance that after this long-held alliance, the recent souring of relations between Turkey and the U.S. is simply an aberration created by Erdogan.
However, in reality, Turkey realizes that global politics are becoming increasingly multi-polar, with China and Russia playing major roles in shaping international affairs. The reason Erdogan threatened to close the U.S. bases was because of threats of sanctions as a result of the Turkish government recently purchasing the S-400 Russian surface-to-air missile system as well as their actions throughout Northern Syria, which have alarmed international observers and western nations. Turkey has called the U.S.’s requests to halt the purchase of the missile system as a violation of their sovereignty, as they believe in striking a balance between the U.S. and Russia, giving them greater ability to maneuver geopolitically. For example, if the U.S. condemns a foreign policy action taken by Turkey, they can threaten to become closer-aligned with Russia, and vice-versa.
The fact is, the United States must accept that global politics are becoming increasingly multipolar, and largely as a result of its own actions, such as PNTR with China, which provided the country with the capital and technology necessary to develop to the point that it has today, as well as the expansion of NATO to former-Soviet states, which has pressured Russia to rebuild their military.
At this point, it is becoming increasingly difficult for the U.S. to combat these rising powers, so a strategy far more focused on diplomacy should be pursued. Turkey can continue to be a strong ally to the U.S, as long as it accepts that Turkey will have friendly relations with Russia, China and a growing non-aligned movement.