Summary: Russia and Jordan have come to an agreement to make the Syrian-Jordan border region more secure. Jordan has had an increasing issue with what they claim are Iranian-backed militias and drug traffickers. The Syrian Civil War has destabilized the region and has left these areas essentially lawless, which has made Syria one of the biggest drug trafficking centers in the world. Jordan has approached Russia as they fear their commitment in Ukraine will lead to fewer Russians in Syria, which would subsequently allow Iran to inherit the power vacuum left by Russia. However, Russia has agreed to send military police forces to the border region to combat the threats of these groups.
Analysis: I do not believe in good faith Russia will actually uphold this deal for a lot of time. The war in Ukraine has increasingly become costly for the Russian Federation, and multiple divisions from Syria have already been withdrawn to be redirected towards the flailing war effort in Ukraine. While Russia may keep some form of a force in the region to create a façade that it’s upholding its commitment, it will likely not even be close to enough militia police needed to sufficiently combat the drug trafficking in the region. I believe the most evident thing to this fact is that Jordan itself is taking harsher actions against these smugglers, with the government allowing military action to be used against them. They would not have greenlighted this if it was a problem that could be efficiently solved with a military police force. Russian and Jordan’s relationship will likely remain the same whether Russia upholds its part of the deal or not, but Russia’s prestige in the Middle East is swiftly declining along with its war efforts in Ukraine. Jordan will not want to ruin its relationship with Russia, as a solidification of Russia’s increasing friendship with Iran would be detrimental to their overall security and political influence.
Connection to Class: Jordan is having a security dilemma due to militias and a major drug trafficking problem on its northern border. This has subsequently backed them into a corner and has led them to take harsh military action against drug traffickers and militias in the lawless region. Furthermore, Russia is seeking to act as a facilitator between the Turkey and Iran (Bipolar powers). They are exerting their political and militaristic influence to garner overall regional influence, however, this has slowly deteriorated as their commitment to the region has been put into question due to much of its resources being diverted to the war in Ukraine.