In September, an Egyptian warship delivered a second major load of weaponry to Somalia, including weapons like anti-craft airguns and loads of other artillery. This exchange between the two countries confirmed that there is the possibility for further tension with Ethiopia. Egypt and Somalia have come together this year over the common enemy, Ethiopia. Somalia is furious that Ethiopia signed a deal at the beginning of the year with the self-declared republic of Somaliland to lease a section of its coastline for a port in exchange for independence from their motherland, Somalia. Somalia sees Somaliland as part of their sacred nterritory, and not independent, which makes this a larger conflict within the two territories. This recent diplomatic disagreement has pushed Somalia to form closer ties with Egypt, who has had long-standing disputes with Ethiopia.
Ethiopia has more than 3,000 soldiers stationed in Somalia as a part of a peacekeeping initiative known as the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia, (ATMIS), which is in place to prevent an uprising of violence and monitor borders. Somalia says Ethiopia has until the end of the year to leave to avoid resorting to a larger conflict. Somalia believes the Somaliland deal was a threat to the country’s sovereignty, and will apply pressure on Ethiopian officials to drop the agreement. Egypts president Abdel Fattah el-Sisi said “Egypt will not allow anyone to threaten Somalia of affect its security”, making it clear Egypt sides with Somalia. From analyzing this conflict, we can determine this problem is on the regional interstate level. The complex diplomatic situation involving Egypt, Somalia, Somaliland, and Ethiopia introduces a regional power struggle that can be viewed through the balance of power theory.
Ethiopia holds significant military power, with its armed forces are among the largest in Africa. This hard military presence gives Ethiopia leverage on Somalia, who has limited military power due to the rebuilding of its armies after years of civil war. Somalia has a softer power, through diplomacy and culture. Somalia also has a historical role as a trade hub in the Indian Ocean, giving Somalia more trade power compared to landlocked Ethiopia. Although both countries possess elements of hard and soft power, Somalia’s geostrategic location and strong diplomacy contribute to its soft power while Ethiopia’s military presence as well as their control over the Nile give it hard power. Conflict between a hard & soft power can be difficult to overcome because hard power relies on military or economic pressure, which is far from the diplomatic and cultural nature of soft power. When Ethiopia inserts its military operations in Somalia, it risks damaging its diplomatic image as a leader of Africa with peace and security initiatives. Somalia should lead by example and refer to careful policy coordination with Ethiopia to align security goals and long-term diplomatic relations. The balance depends on communication, solid actions, and consistency. Ethiopia should ensure its military actions align with its peacekeeping image to maintain a softer power. However, in tense regions, these relations night be difficut since the demands of hard power often undermine soft power initiatives.