Link to Article:https://www.dailywire.com/news/iran-plans-to-attack-israel-signals-it-may-now-pursue-nuclear-weapon
As of November 1st, 2024, it has been reported that Iran will now respond to the limited Israeli strike on Iranian military and misleading facilities, after what appeared to be an initial down playing of the event. The Israeli strike accoutrements in response to the Iranian decían to fire 180 missiles at Israel. Although saying that Iran would deliver a “Fierce, tooth-breaking response” according to head of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s office, Gholamhossein Mohammadi Golpayegani, analysts have said that Iran is stuck between a rock and a hard place as responding would risk another response from Israel who has already demonstrated a growing military stream goth after decimating Iran’s air defense during their strike allowing for the Israel Air Force (IAF) to fly over Iranian airspace; on the other hand not responding would make the Iranian Government look weak adding fuel to opposition within Iran and cause the loss of respect with allies.
The article is two weeks old and has no significant updates. While it is still possible that Iran is planning for a Nuclear response, more than likely, they are biding their time to come up with a less consequential response. Assuming that the translation of Iranian officials is accurate, the statements sounded more of a placating fluff than an actual plan for response. As stated in that article, Iran is stuck between the proverbial Rock and a hard place. Israel has proven in the last year that they are going to fight back against any aggression that threatens their civilians or borders and has been proactive in taking out Iranian military threats.
The two main actors are the states of Iran and Israel. Iran, to prove strength to their population that they are able to engage and possibly win against Israel, they should attack. But Israel has proven themselves to be a formidable force holding out on three different fronts for the last year. The article mentions that Iran could ask a proxy power to attack Israel for them or, now that Iran reportedly has the technology, they could go the full scale nuclear route. That is more likely a worst case scenario option as it could pull in a lot of other countries, not for support of Israel, but because of a nuclear threat. Israel on the other hand could conduct a full scale military attack on Iran as they have already taken out many Iranian Military forces. Prime Minister Netanyahu has already been quoted as saying, “that Israel now has greater freedom to operate in Iran than ever before,”. However, since Israels fight is with HAMAS and is only fighting Iran because Iran fired first, they will probably try to avoid this option for as long as possible. Israel could also negotiate with Iran but it is unlikely that is something Iran is willing to do.
Iran seems to be following an Offensive Realism strategy, while Israel seems to be following a Defensive Realism strategy. While Iran had been backing Israeli opposition, Israel attacked Iran’s military bases in retaliation to Iran’s misled strikes against Israel. Iran attacked Israel first indirectly by funding their opposition, then directly after the Israeli attacks against Hezbollah. There is also the fact that historically, Israel gave up portions of their land in an attempt for peace, hence why their size has shrunk from 1948 to where it is today, backing the idea that Israel is practicing Defensive Realism. If Israel were practicing Offensive Realism, they would not have given up their land in the first place. Iran, while not practicing the expansionist part of Offensive Realism, was the one to strike first before they could be attacked.