Link to article: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/syria-war-aleppo-airstrikes-russia-assad-rebels-offensive/
Airstrikes were delivered by the Syrian military and their ally Russia on areas that Islamic rebel group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) took control of in the last few days. HTS took Syria’s president Bashar Assad by surprise with their quick offensive that took control of Aleppo, a major city in northern Syria. Assad and Russian support ramped up counter attacks as rebel forces pushed further around the city and as observers have stated, seem to have been met with little resistance. HTS threatens to continue into Syria’s capital. Airstrikes from Syria-Russian forces hit areas in Aleppo and neighboring it, killing 49 people, 17 being civilians. The US and its allies insist on de-escalating conflict in Syria especially for the protection of civilians and infrastructure. The top diplomat of Iran was in Syria to state their support for Assad including militarily. A civil war in Syria that started more than a decade ago has caused millions of Syrians to have become displaced. The president of the U.S.-based Foreign Policy Research Institute declared that the rebel advance is simply a reminder of the weakness of the Assad regime.
With the support of Turkey, HTS aims to gain enough power to perhaps have a sway politically in Syria. HTS is trying to appeal to citizens, portraying themselves as legitimate and less restrictive as Assad in order to gain more Syrian support for their movement. Clearly, Assad’s regime is not very popular in Syria as a civil war broke out because of dislike of their government. Anti-Assad personnel were also kidnapped and killed which further added to the discontentment. I don’t see how Russia’s support can be very helpful because their main focus will be elsewhere regarding their costly war with Ukraine. HTS could have decided for this offensive because they thought Assad’s governance was too weak to combat their attacks. Outsiders watching the conflict agree with this statement seeing that HTS rebels were met with little to no resistance.
Looking at possible aid for Assad, it could be possible that Hezbollah increases their support especially with the ceasefire in Lebanon (although they may be on guard there still since the ceasefire is tested each day). It also seems that Hezbollah’s main focus is fighting with Israel. With most things looking in their favor, HTS most certainly will continue their offensive, gaining more territory in Syria. Assad could call for more support, but perhaps secretly, as a public cry would only solidify the opinion of the Assad regime’s weakness.
This conflict shows how greatly non-state actors (the rebel groups) can play a role in politics and influence certain affairs. Russia has a naval base in Tartus which is a strategic point for them in Syria, so Russia will try to maintain this presence through intervention showcasing a realist mindset to secure your state’s interest and especially power. HTS aims to gain territory and influence in Syria, again demonstrating the realist’s struggle for power.