https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/15/world/middleeast/israel-iran-protests-netanyahu.html
Summary:
Much of the world is wary of US intervention, including Israel. Israel has always viewed Iran as enemies, as demonstrated by the brief, 12-day war last June. Although Israel would give everything to see the regime fall and lose their nuclear capabilities, they feel that attacks from afar aren’t enough to topple the regime; they won’t get involved unless they’re provoked or teamed up with the US. Netanyahu is wary of US retaliation because he fears that Iran will harm Israel as a response to American attacks.
The IRGC and Basij Militia are the loosely-organized forces behind this demonstration, but experts believed that said demonstrations will be short lived as there’s no means for strong defense, leadership, or organization. Right now, the country is experiencing a state of “kill, or be killed.”
Class Connection:
This article relates to themes of interdependence (or the lack of it), legitimacy, & social movements.
Analysis:
This article is super important because it illustrates how easy it is for states to enter involuntary proxy conflicts (ex. Israel getting attacked for something America did). There’s no definitive way to predict what’ll happen next, but there’s good reason to believe that even though these protests are larger than ever, there’s a great chance of failure due to a lack of COHESIVE action.
Even without foreign intervention, there are international consequences as the whole situation runs the risk of harming Iranian-back areas in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, etc. if the Iranians do lose control in places like Syria and Lebanon, then Israel will jump right in to gain control of that territory, inciting more chaos because even though Israel wouldn’t attack first, they’re stupid enough to try and further extend their control where they already have a foot in the door.
The region is currently locked in deterrence and not sustainable resolution. If these protests were successful, it would be because so many people agree upon the idea that this frustration has nothing to do with religion itself but rather the lack of government legitimacy (since there’s minimal protection and the economy is taking a dive) and the government’s willingness to mobilize religious figures and secularize to consolidate their power (which they’re maintaining through force and not performance). If they fail, then the protests will likely emerge again soon once the social movement has the means for bureaucratization because it’s obvious that the people want reform (as demonstrated by the relative deprivation and political opportunity theories).
This conflict will also have trickling economic effects because the Iranian economy will continue to fall since foreign investors will continue to shy away (because they can’t trust where their money is going since very minimal info is able to come out of the area due to internet cuts). This could therefore impact the economies of those areas that Iran has some control over as it’s likely that the US will impose stricter sanctions on anyone trading with Iran until Iran stops tormenting protestors, which is very unlikely in the coming days.