Link to Article: https://apnews.com/article/israel-iran-netanyahu-election-72ca7119827c289e127d6464119d3761
Israel’s ongoing conflicts with Iran and Hezbollah are shaping the political future of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as the country approaches elections expected in 2026. Netanyahu must decide whether to call early elections or wait until the scheduled vote later in the year, while the wars on multiple fronts continue to influence public opinion. A clear military victory could strengthen his political standing, but prolonged fighting and continued threats from Iran and Hezbollah may weaken support and increase frustration among Israelis, especially in northern regions affected by attacks. Netanyahu is also still facing criticism over the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack and the government’s handling of security issues. Analysts say he may delay elections to rebuild political support, though ongoing conflict could further damage trust in his leadership and strain relations with the United States. The situation shows how international conflicts can directly affect domestic politics in Israel.
This article raises questions on the future of Israel’s leadership. I was surprised by how low both Netanyahu’s approval rating and his election results have been in Israel given his prominent stance in global politics. That said, the conflict in Iran seems to have persisted longer than expected and had a larger impact on the Israeli homeland than anticipated. If the conflict doesn’t come to a swift end relatively soon, Natanyahu could risk having to hold an election during an ongoing war which may reflect negatively on his leadership. While he has continued to strengthen Israeli ties with the U.S., I imagine any newly elected leader would act similarly as Israel benefits enormously from U.S. involvement.
Obviously, we won’t know Netanyahu’s future in Israel until the election comes. That said, criticism against him has been rising, and if the war with Iran continues as is, it’s plausible that Natanyahu could be replaced. This could potentially mean a shift in Israeli foreign policy, though it’s unlikely the new leadership would be drastically different. The U.S. will more than likely support Netanyahu in reelection as he has shown prominent relations with Donald Trump and a number of U.S. congress members. It goes without saying that Iran will likely be against Natanyahus reelection in the coming months.
Much of the collaboration between the U.S. and Israel against Iran can be seen through the liberal theory. Greater cooperation between the U.S. and Israel has, arguably, increased stability in parts of the Middle East as Israel gains significant power. Both the U.S. and Israel shared national interest revolving around disarming Iran’s nuclear program and potentially gaining more control over the Strait of Hormuz. That said, their collaboration still led to a more realist approach with both nations now being tangled into a war. From Natanyahu’s perspective, this war may become more harmful than beneficial if it ends up costing him the election later this year.