In an unfortunate turn of events in the Middle East and North Africa, there has been a recent trend of failed states emerging, with Libya, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen all having essentially lost control due to a variety of internal and external factors between them. One that has the potential to collapse and is largely ignored, however, is Saudi Arabia. Despite their vast oil wealth, there are a variety of factors that could cause the state to experience a crisis that would destroy the country.
The usually quite strong Saudi economy has been flagging in recent years, due to the global downturn in oil prices. These have particularly affected the Saudis, who rely on oil almost exclusively, and caused a 400 billion dollar profit loss in 2015. Although other Gulf states have relied on oil to grow their economies, many of them, especially the United Arab Emirates, are attempting to diversify their economic sectors, with Dubai becoming a financial hub and tourist destination rising in popularity. Not so with Saudi Arabia, which relies on oil for over three quarters of its economy. Oil also forms the only major category of employment in the country, with only the temporary jobs from the hajj pilgrimage being more in number. Such a reliance on one particularly volatile resource has created issues in many other countries, such as Venezuela, and could certainly prove a problem in Saudi Arabia.
Another major issue in Saudi Arabia is the structure of the Royal Family. The House of Saud is comprised of over ten thousand members, and all of them jockey for power in a complicated and unclear line of succession, the issues of which were brought to light in the 2015 death of king Abdullah. These problems, in a country that suffers from vast unemployment and religious extremism already, could easily lead to strife.
Were civil strife to occur, the problems within the country’s government could easily lead to a civil war. While Saudi Arabia has a well funded military force, it is divided and controlled by various factions within the Saudi government that are often opposed to each other. Most of the Saudi military is controlled by the Ministry of defense, comprised of the brothers of the original Saudi King who all compete for the position of king themselves. The Saudi national guard, however, answers only to the king and essentially functions as his private army. Should a crisis occur in Saudi Arabia, this division of power could cause a civil war to break out. With all the internal and external opposition the country faces, Saudi Arabia is definitely at risk of collapse, as so many other countries in the region have.