Link to article: https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/10/31/analysis-its-a-win-win-for-hezbollah-against-israel-so-far
The article talks about how Israel seems to be increasing forces into Gaza. Then it mentions that Israel has a major issue on its northern border, in the form of Lebanon’s military the Hezbollah. The Hezbollah military has defeated Israel in the past, forcing Israel to end occupation over southern Lebanon. Now Hezbollah lines the northern border with Israel with many soldiers, this has to be responded to by Israel which has to also increase border protection. This is a large issue for Israel because it can’t use all of its forces against Palestine, Israel also has the risk of fighting a war on 2 fronts.
In International Relations class, we have talked about the different types of realism. In the case of Hezbollah lining their border with soldiers, it would more be defensive realism. The idea Hezbollah has, is to fortify the border with the assumption that after Palestine falls they will be next. Hezbollah has secured their place in the power system. Invading a distracted Israel would’ve been offensive realism, with the idea of a preemptive strike. Defeat Israel before they eventually turn on Lebanon. The likely future is that Hezbollah will eventually launch an invasion into Israel, once the situation with Palestine is wrapping up.