In an air attack on October 14th, Israel air attacked the Lebanon town of Aitou. This represents a series of attacks where Israel claims to be hitting Hezbollah targets, but authorities claim they are hitting targets far from Hezbollah-controlled areas. Experts believe that these attacks actually aim for religious Shia communities that support Hezbollah, but are likely not directly involved in Hezbollah’s attacks/proceedings. Concerns have risen over the sectarian conflict in Lebanon this may cause, as Lebanon tends to be pretty segregated in terms of religion. Al Jazeera writes that this sectionarianism will destabilize the country, and isolate the Shia, as they are strong supporters of the Palestinians.
The attacks on the Shia in Lebanon are likely to further decrease the morale and hope of the Palestinians, if they see their supporters isolated, it is more likely that Hamas will come closer to surrender, or will make an attempt of negotiation with Israel. Additionally, there is a conflict in religious/ideological ideas between the Israeli and Shia, as the Shia and Jewish religions experience a lot of tension. However, with more attacks directed at Shia villages, I can also see Hezbollah increasing the intensity and precision of their attacks on Israel, precision in relation to target. Just recently, Hezbollah attacked Tel Aviv, a major Israel airport. Furthermore, it is possible that Lebanon may begin to receive more outside support from other countries with concentrated Shia populations like Azerbaijan.
Security wise it is in Israel’s national interest to continue to attack Lebanon as that is where Hezbollah is based and Hezbollah has begun to attack major military and transportation points of Israel. In regards to the attacks on Shia populations however, this represents Israel wielding a cultural power, or even creating and digging into a cultural dynamic, as their attacks in Lebanon are likely to isolate the Shia even further from other Lebanese. If the Shia are attacked and try to hide with others, it is likely they will be rejected out of fear of those who they’re hiding with being attacked as well, in addition to worry over interrogation and suspicion.