Link to article: https://apnews.com/article/syria-aleppo-hama-hts-russia-0189297bbdc76eee67cb4fdc62136bef
Thursday Syrian rebels took the city of Hama as government forces withdrew, only days after taking much of Syria’s biggest city, Aleppo. The rebels (Jihadi group HTS and other Turkish backed militias) have now set their sights on the third largest city in Syria, Homs which is 125 miles from the capital and Syrian President Assad’s seat of power, Damascus. All throughout the Syrian civil war Hama has been mostly government controlled until now. The leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Abu Mohammed al-Golani announced that the conquest of these cities was not in vengeance, but one of “mercy and compassion”. HTS once served as al-Qaida’s branch in Syria, but has stated in recent years that it has cut ties with al-Qaida. An International Crisis Group advisor stated that the conquest of Hama is a huge win for the rebels and very hurtful for the Syrian regime and questions if the regime will survive the war. Russia and Iran, Assad’s main allies, are preoccupied with their own wars. Tens of thousands of people have been displaced by the fighting.
From some research, Hama is a strategically important location, a significant connector from Damascus to Aleppo and the coast. The rebels having Hama could lead to the disruption of government supply lines and communications- perhaps isolating the capital. Another fall to a major city in Syria again shows the weakness of Assad’s regime and will likely not deter the rebel groups from continuing their offensives due to most of these victories. I think that it is unlikely that Russia or Iran lends more support to Syria because they are dealing with their own conflicts and haven’t done much since the first offensive. Hama has had a history of brutal government led crackdowns mostly to suppress opposition and Islamist uprisings. With all of this repression shown in the city of Hama, it has become a symbol of protest with anti-Assad uprisings.
It seems like the rebel’s next stop is Homs which analysts say would be a game changer for the rebels (where Damascus connects to the coast and where Assad has his base and also home to a Russian naval base). It doesn’t really look like Assad has much support at home, so he may have to encourage more support from his allies Russia and Iran. Iran and Russia might push for the idea of a ceasefire (and the UN as well). The US has a group in north east Syria that may try to secretly combat terrorist groups and Assad.
The role of greater powers like the US and Russia show how they can shape what plays out in the world. Like if Russia were to send more aid to Syria it could potentially be the help Assad needs to stay in power. Right now, it looks as if the rebels are very successful in the conquest of territory in Syria and I wonder if Assad’s regime will soon cease to exist. The US does not support the rebel groups, so if they were to take control of the country, would we do much to stop them?