Are zero prime ministers better than two? Sri Lanka is about to find out. After five weeks of dramatic political developments that resemble a dark political thriller, Colombo is currently embroiled in an unprecedented political crisis that has undermined its democracy and thrown the country into disarray.
On October 26, President Maithripala Sirisena sacked Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, a member of his own governing coalition since 2015, and replaced him with the leader of the opposition — former President Mahinda Rajapaksa — the bitter rival he ran against in 2015.
Shifting rivalries and alliances between these three men have turned Sri Lanka’s government into a real-life episode of Game of Thrones. As a struggle for the prime minister’s role plays out between Wickremesinghe and Rajapaksa, with Sirisena acting more like a king than a democratically-elected head of state, the country remains in suspended animation — with no prime minister in charge and a government so divided that members of parliament actually came to physical blows.
With protesters swarming the streets, Speaker of Parliament Karu Jayasuriya warned of “a huge bloodbath” if the crisis isn’t swiftly resolved. A prolonged crisis, Jayasuriya cautioned in October, “will set this country back on the international stage and damage our economy.” But a month later, there is still no end in sight.
What Started the Crisis?
In Sri Lanka’s 2015 presidential election, Sirisena, who had been a part of Rajapaksa’s cabinet, joined with the opposition to deal the sitting president — who had ruled Sri Lanka for the previous 10 years — a surprising defeat. Rajapaksa’s demise heralded a hopeful moment for Sri Lanka. He had presided over the defeat of the Tamil Tigers in a civil war, but his reign was stained by his consolidation of executive power, numerous human rights abuses, authoritarian governance, and corruption. The new Sirisena-Wickremesinghe coalition promised a much-needed era of reconciliation, democratic reform, and economic development.
This optimistic phase came to a crashing halt on Friday, October 26, when Sirisena fired Wickremesinghe and forged an alliance with Rajapaksa, leading both men to claim to be prime minister. A defiant Wickremesinghe took refuge in the official prime minister’s residence and indicated that he would only leave office if he lost majority support in parliament. In response, Sirisena suspended parliament to give Rajapaksa time to secure support and dissolved the cabinet, allowing Rajapaksa to form a new one that had little credibility.
In the following week, Wickremesinghe, a majority of parliamentarians, and much of the international community called on the president and speaker to reconvene parliament to determine whether Wickremesinghe continued to enjoy majority support. At first, Sirisena agreed — suggesting first that parliament would reconvene on November 5 and again on November 7 — but then changed his mind both times. Given this evidence of Sirisena’s lack of good faith, Jayasuriya declared that the majority of parliament considered the president’s moves “unconstitutional” and that Wickremesinghe was the legitimate prime minister until a parliamentary majority approved Sirisena’s changes.
Under pressure, Sirisena finally announced parliament would reconvene on November 14. Reports of problematic horse-trading, intimidation, and bribery surfaced right away, and individual parliamentarians received absurdly large offers of money to defect.
Despite these efforts, Rajapaksa failed to cobble together enough support in parliament to form a government, losing two no-confidence votes — on November 14 and 16 — in a row. Nevertheless, he and Sirisena have refused to budge. Sirisena maintains he will never accept Wickremesinghe as prime minister — as if his personal whims carry some kind of legal and democratic mandate. Having faced defeat in parliament, Sirisena pushed further into the extra-legal wilderness, dissolving parliament altogether and calling snap elections for January 2019.
The Supreme Court issued an interim order ruling Sirisena’s decision unconstitutional, staving off parliament’s dissolution and putting elections on hold. In addition, on December 3, the Sri Lanka Court of Appeal issued a temporary order preventing Rajapaksa and his cabinet from holding office. Both decisions are being appealed, meaning that for all intents and purposes, Sri Lanka currently has no government.https://asiasociety.org/blog/asia/south-asian-game-thrones-behind-sri-lankas-political-crisis