The U.S. and Taliban recently announced a deal to institute a partial truce which started February 22nd, 2020. The deal will test whether a lasting peace is possible in the nation without a complete withdrawal of U.S. forces. If the truce succeeds it could lead to a partial U.S. withdrawal which could foreshadow a complete withdrawal at some point in the foreseeable future. The war in Afghanistan has been raging for 18 years, and many in the U.S., including the vast majority of the electorate, seek to end the seemingly endless conflict.
Trump has already attempted to end the war in Afghanistan, and has so far been unsuccessful. The U.S.’s involvement in the country has created a difficult situation for the president. Numerous U.S. companies have profited extensively from the conflict and have subsequently become a powerful lobby. Government contractors and companies invested in natural resources seek to prolong American involvement as long as possible, as they could potentially lose contracts or access to Afghan resources if the Taliban were to retake the country.
Similarly, the national security state has set entirely unrealistic goals, such as totally removing the Taliban from the country, a feat made all but impossible by their widespread popular support and the rugged terrain of the war torn country. As a result, it would be essentially impossible to “declare victory” and enact a complete withdrawal.
The two major forces of U.S. corporate and national security state interests opposing withdrawal make achieving peace difficult, especially from a president such as Trump, whose party receives extensive corporate financing.
All things considered, it is unlikely that this truce is little more than a political stunt to boost the president’s reelection chances. Forces within the United States and even the Trump administration itself will be working to undermine the agreement, and there is little evidence to demonstrate that the president is willing to expend political capital pursuing the issue.