Will China Attack Taiwan?

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What happens in the Ukraine-Russia conflict could shape China’s approach to Taiwan. Beijing’s long-standing claim to the island nation brings concern for western countries. In a survey given to IR experts, 56 percent of experts said they thought Russia would invade Ukraine in the next year. But only 11 percent of respondents said they thought China would attack Taiwan in the next year. Although an invasion of Taiwan is unlikely, the experts believe it is important that the United States respond forcefully to such an attack, more forcefully than the United States responded to the Russian attack on Ukraine.

As small as the country is, the island is of great importance to the world. Washington has strategic, economic, and normative reasons for safeguarding the island from Chinese coercion. IR experts from the news source “The Diplomat”, concluded that Taiwan’s geopolitical position and economy, while important, are not critical to American interests in East Asia. However, Taiwan’s status as a vibrant, autonomous democracy is critical and an American interest. Beijing increasingly sees itself safer in a world fundamentally different from orders built by the West. To keep themselves independent from the Western orders, China started using diplomatic and economic means, including large-scale investment/infrastructure packages, to entice small states to abandon Taipei.

As our world becomes more and more economically interdependent, the possible sanctions could bring so much economic damage that China isnt willing to risk. The threat of sanctions act as a deterrent to any physical involvement on the Chinese front. This relates to International Relations class as we can see the global interdependence in our current world. An isolated incident between Ukraine and Russia brings in opportunity for China to take its neighboring island. In my opinion, The western world needs to start rethinking their supply chains and dependence on other countries in the world as we are only going to run into more and more conflicts.

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