Iran has threatened Israel over its claimed assassination of a Hamas leader in the Iranian capital. Iran has stated that it will retaliate for the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, in which Israel is the prime suspect. Iran launched a barrage of drones, cruise and ballistic missiles at Israel on April 13th of this year. However, Iran is concerned at the effectiveness and legitimacy of the missile program it has in place as it was ineffective against Israeli air and missile defense. Few of the Iranian missiles and drones reached their mark as a U.S.- backed coalition intercepted and shot them down. A report by experts has shown that the missiles developed by Iran are not nearly as effective as previously thought. The attack showed some ability to strike Israel but is very underwhelming in its physical effect. The weapons may not be seen as ones of mass destruction and effectiveness but rather ones of terror, as they only seem to strike fear in the people they have been released upon.
Iran has been a long standing opponent and enemy of Israel. Iran’s lack of ability to match Israel’s military force is surprising and unsettling to Iran. Israel has top-of-the-line F-35s supplied by the United States while Iran’s air power consists of outdated F-14s and MiG-29s. Iran realizes it will not win a fight in the air against Israel so they then fall back on their missile and drone development, which has been vaunted in the past. However, after the attack in April, they have realized it is not as effective as once thought. Before Iran can start any ground war or attack, they must shore up their missile and drone defense. Iran must be wary of any attack they want to press on Israel as they aren’t as technologically advanced. I believe that this lack of effect on Israel will make Iran think before launching another missile attack or possibly a ground war.
Geography seriously limits Iran’s options against Israel as they share no border and have a considerable distance between them. Iran could possibly enlist the help of allies in the area such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthi rebels to bolster a possible attack on Israel and incapacitate its defense forces. Another option for Iran is developing a nuclear weapon. This mode of attack is extreme and unlikely as Iran has not had a military nuclear program since 2003. They would need to develop an atomic weapon and then downsize it to fit in a launchable missile. Israel on the other hand may react to this show of force, or lack thereof, by simply attacking Iran directly to destroy their ability to launch an attack on Israel. Israel may try to destroy Iran’s ability to fight before they even enter the war, which would be very effective.
Governments and nations both utilize international relations to avoid the possibility of war between two countries. However, diplomacy between Israel and Iran has failed and the two have reverted to military attacks. Israel is currently attempting to come to a cease fire agreement with Hamas in Gaza but the results have not been satisfying. Both Israel, Iran, and Palestine’s lack of negotiations may spark a larger war within the Middle East.