Link to article: https://www.timesofisrael.com/as-iran-sends-forces-to-syria-idf-warns-it-not-to-smuggle-arms-to-hezbollah/
Iran’s government has sent weapons to Syria to be used by Hezbollah in Lebanon, an action that the Israel Defense Force (IDF) claimed they are closely monitoring. It is an Israeli priority to keep weapons out of Hezbollah’s reach, something that Israel will take action to prevent if necessary. Iran has long backed Syria together with Hezbollah since the Syria’s civil war, and maintains its presence of military advisors in Syria even after recent events in Aleppo. It is unclear if Iran will increase its power in Syria due to the rebel offensive. Iran is facing separation from its alliance with Syria as both the US and UAE push Syria to break from Iran and Hezbollah in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions (including the Caesar Act) that have contributed to the collapse of the Syrian economy since Assad’s leadership. This would require Assad to break from Iran and to cut off weapon routes used by Hezbollah. However, Iran has worked to remind Syria of the necessity of their relations; meanwhile, Syria has avoided joining in the Israel conflict even as Iran mobilized its allies against the state and as Hezbollah members were attacked by Israel in Syria.
This could have lasting impacts on the region dependent on the actions of Iran. If Syria decides to break the alliance, Iran is forced to double down on their relations with Hezbollah and other anti-Israeli groups as well as make up for the loss of a crucial strategic ally. However, if Assad chooses to prioritize Iran over the loosening of economic sanctions, Syria will likely become directly involved in the Israeli conflict in similar role to Iran, which is the distribution of arms, specifically to Hezbollah. Without any hope of improving relations with the West, Syria likely will instead bolster its relations with Iran by contributing to the anti-Israeli movement. Historically, Syria has been Iran’s closest ally since the Islamic revolution, and I think that Iran will take necessary action in order to maintain this alliance even as the US and UAE put forth offers. Iran MUST maintain this alliance in order to truly exert power in the region, specifically the Israeli conflict. Even with ties to Hezbollah, Iran needs Syria in order to transport the arms they wish to send to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Without the thoroughfare of Syria, it would be much more difficult for Iran to participate in the rearmament of Hezbollah in Lebanon.
In class, we have recently discussed international environments and their sub-ideas. I think the international environment that best describes Iran is Hobbesian, as their motivator is power and security (Iran has long been a revisionist state) as well as the belief that states are in constant competition, as seen within Iran’s boosting of one anarchic group (Hezbollah) in an anarchic conflict (within Israel). Iran sees no global authority, it sees its own search for power and influence within Central Asia and the Middle East, which dictates its identity, sense of self, and therefore, actions.