https://apnews.com/article/sri-lanka-india-china-bilateral-ties-01819172aaf279f71ce4d1376c9006c9
Marxist Anura Kumara Dissanayake was recently elected as president of Sri Lanka, representing a change in the country’s politics as citizens seek relief from the economic crisis. The country declared bankruptcy in 2022, and citizens continue to suffer from the effects of the country’s failing economy. Dissanayake promised to improve economic conditions and lessen the burden placed on the working class. However, this cannot be done alone, making foreign policy more important than ever—Dissanayake will have to negotiate with creditors to restructure Sri Lanka’s debts and maintain positive relations with countries such as India and China who are offering to support the country’s economic recovery. India’s Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar was the first to visit the new leader, and the two discussed how to strengthen ties between India and Sri Lanka. Not long after, Dissanayake took his first official diplomatic trip to visit India as well.
India and China are the two main rival powers in the South Asian region, and tensions have risen further in recent years due to border disputes. The two countries compete for influence in Sri Lanka because it is important for trade and military strategy; however, Dissanayake’s foreign policy decisions could shift the balance between their influences. Because of his platform, Dissanayake’s policy will likely align solely with Sri Lanka’s best economic interests. India and China are major creditors of Sri Lanka’s foreign debts, with $4.7 billion owed to China and $1.74 billion to India. Both have also provided aid to Sri Lanka during the economic crisis, but India has provided more, which could be why Dissanayake’s initial actions are showing a preference for India.
Relations with both China and India are crucial to Sri Lanka’s economic recovery, which is Dissanayake’s main objective. Because of this, Sri Lanka will likely make an effort to maintain and strengthen relations with both countries, but more so with whichever one provides the most financial aid or debt relief. Because of their rivalry, China and India will likely continue to compete for influence over Sri Lanka. This could be positive for Sri Lanka, if they compete by offering more aid to gain more influence, or negative, if tensions heat up enough for either country to take advantage of Sri Lanka’s economic vulnerability by using force to take full control of the region.
Sri Lanka has geopolitical value to China due to its proximity to India, who China views as a rival. Control over Sri Lanka could allow China to project more power in South Asia and more easily access Indian Ocean trade routes. Sri Lanka has geopolitical value to India due to its proximity to India itself—any rival country having control over that territory would be a critical threat to India’s national security. These different interests show that China takes an offensive realist approach to its national security, by gaining territory to project power, while India takes a defensive realist approach, by protecting itself from other states’ actions becoming national security threats.