https://www.rferl.org/a/israeli-strike-qatar-hamas-iran-consequences/33527807.html
This article is in response to the recent attack by Israel on Doha, the capital of Qatar. The Israeli airforce used an airstrike in Doha in an attempt to target the political leadership of Hamas. As a result of the airstrike six people were killed, one of whom was part of Qatar’s security services. The article notes the implications of this strike on further impacting the international view of Israel following their conflict with Iran over the Gaza strip. The article suggests that this attack improves Iran’s argument that Israel is a threat to the region and must be limited. This is important for Iran’s soft power as it asserts that Iran is in the same position as other countries in the Gulf and is not limited to the fact they dislike Israel. This is especially prudent given the ceasefire between Israel and Iran that was created in June which the article asserts is quite fragile.
I think that take in this article is quite interesting. While I can see the evidence Israel can use to defend its actions, saying it was targeting terrorist leaders, I still worry about the ways this may progress in the future. If there is not a firm response to this attack, I think it opens the door for the possibility Israel takes a similar route to combating cross border terrorism in Iran as it did in Gaza which would be disatorous for citizens and likely harmful for both countries. I think that because of the ceasefire potentially being broken it is very important for Iran to try to take the moral highground in order to win support from the Gulf.
There are a few major stakeholders at play, namely – Iran, Israel, and the rest of the Gulf Countries – and how they react to this attack will likely determine if this reignites past conflict. Israel as the arbitrator has two general choices, wait for a response or attack again probably more heavily, and they have these two choices after each attack until someone responds. Iran is pretty likely to respond, potentially violently. I think one way that would be a strong choice to lead to a good outcome would be to try to get the support of the other Gulf countries in order to prevent any further action by Israel without reigniting previous conflict. Were the Gulf countries, the final major stakeholder, to say no to Iran and not stand with them, then I think a violent knee-jerk reaction is quite likely which will probably take shape as either a responding attack or a lot of aid to Palestine to help them fight the Israeli military.
This is a prime example of how unclear the line can be between peace and conflict. This attack taking place despite the preexisting cease fire has opened the door for more conflict despite the fact that this was previously a time of direct peace between Israel and Iran. One could argue however that rather this is simply a more direct form of action by Israel in response to Iran’s anti-Israel pro-Palestinian government and thereby their support of Palestine in their struggle against Israel for the Gaza Strip.