The countries of Senegal and the Democratic Republic of the Congo are each undergoing a similar issues within their respective political spheres. Each country is approaching a presidential election, the former in December, and the latter in February, and two major candidates have been banned in each of these countries.
Jean-Pierre Bemba is the first we’ll be looking into. Bemba has redefined himself from being a fierce warlord in the Congo to a popular candidate for the presidency. An international court denied his running because he allegedly bribed witnesses during his war crime trials. From my perspective, I think this is a good call on the courts part. The country already suffers from massive levels of poverty, and having a previous warlord in a place of political power could be detrimental to the rest of the people. It is unclear whether Bemba has truly cut all ties to his past, and if he hasn’t, he could use this presidential power to incite violence in the Congo. Another aspect, however, is what he will do if he is not elected into power, which seems like the likely scenario. Unlike the Senegalese candidate, Bemba faces no prison time, and his freedom as a person in general could lead to a more violent result than his presidency. He may very well have completely cut off ties to his criminal contacts, but it is unsure what will ultimately happen until after the election.
The second candidate in question is the former mayor of Dakar, Khalifa Sall. Sall has been charged with mismanaging public funds last month, and currently has five years left on his sentence. Because of this, the Senegal court system has banned his running for presidential office and upheld his prison sentence. While this ruling seems just and fair, it does not completely eliminate Sall from office. Due to his high popularity with the people and his previous holding of government office, his chances of overturning this ruling seem much higher than that of Bemba in the Congo. Also, Sall has the choice to take his case to the Supreme Court, which gives him a legal outing of the ruling, something not offered to the Congolese former candidate. From what I’ve read and considered, Sall has about a 30-40% chance of overturning the case. However, if he does, the road ahead for him looks very clear, and his election into the presidency seems more than certain.