Nigeria could possibly become Africa’s biggest oil refiner by 2025 as stated by a report by Hawilti. The report states that West Africa now has better oil security and that it has the biggest capacity to refine oil, but only 23% of it is operational, and in Nigeria, a new oil refinery could increase its capacity to refine oil. The Dangote Refinery, a facility that took a decade to complete, was finally finished this year and could rebalance Nigeria’s trade deficit. While West African countries like Nigeria are prospering, South African countries aren’t as lucky when it comes to oil refineries, as most South African oil refineries are closed and it’s uncertain what the future of South Africas oil will hold.
This article provides context as to why the U.S. may prioritize Nigeria over other countries in the future. This means the West African region will be prosperous when it comes to refining oil. This will leave a lasting impact on the region because West Africa will become more prosperous than South Africa, which is currently in the decline when it comes to oil refineries. Historicaly, West Africa has always been prosperous as their gold mines provided for great wealth, meanwhile South Africa suffers from poverty due to bad governance, corruption and high-income inequality.
A reason as to why the United States is able to rely on refined oil that comes from Nigeria is due to Off-Shore balancing, using friendly allies in countries close to Nigeria for support if it ever came to it. This, however, is probably not necessary as we are on good terms with Nigeria. It is more likely that we would use Nigeria as an ally in Off-Shore balancing, especially when it comes to South Africa, due to the amount of corruption in the region. A huge reason for the positive relations has to do with the Oil trade and how prosperous it is in Nigeria.