A faction of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has seized two major towns in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, causing the interim government to call for federal intervention due to fears of another civil war. The faction took control of Adigrat and Adi-Gudem, replacing local administrators and injuring several locals.
The TPLF previously fought a two-year civil war against the legitimate Ethiopian government, resulting in a 2022 peace agreement that established an interim TPLF-led government. Since then, internal conflicts have fractured the group. In October, TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael expelled the head of the interim government, Getachew Reda, from the party, leading to retaliatory suspensions of military commanders.
Reda has condemned the recent actions as a “potential coup attempt” and urged the international community to monitor the escalation. The Tigray Communication Affairs Bureau warned of an incoming conflict, while TPLF deputy chairman Amanuel Assefa argued it does not violate the Pretoria Agreement.
The Tigray region has long been in a cycle of conflicts, which looks to continue after the TPLFs recent actions. After the TPLF captured Adi-Gudem, it is likely that they are setting their sights for Mekele, the region’s capital, next, due to the close proximity. This coup would plunge the region into more instability. The TPLF fights to establish itself as the legitimate government for Ethiopia, previously championing Marxist-Leninism, they’ve moved on to support revolutionary democracy.
The paramilitary group is a medium to high risk security threat to Ethiopia as it is a terrorist organization that has captured major cities and will likely hold a siege on the capital of Tigray. This conflict can be classified as an internal armed conflict, as the TPLF is not backed by the majority of the country, and the legitimate government is not an exceedingly corrupt regime. This rising conflict is likely to displace hundreds of Ethiopians to other regions within Ethiopia, or, if the federal government refrains from intervening, may cause Ethiopians to migrate out of the country.